In the newest of what you’ll be expecting will likely be a protracted line of Walt Disney Global vs. Common Orlando information for the following couple of years, final yr’s attendance statistics were launched by means of the Themed Leisure Affiliation. This seems on the winners and losers within the first commonplace yr since 2019, with statement about adjustments and traits for each Central Florida theme park heavyweights and past.
For starters, the 2023 World Sights Attendance File is a collaboration of the Themed Leisure Affiliation (TEA) and the economics observe at AECOM. Most sensible international theme parks, amusement parks, water parks, museums, and theme park operators are named, ranked by means of attendance, and trade traits are recognized. The World Sights Attendance File is thought of as the gold usual throughout the theme park trade, and TEA is very credible.
However, this file does include asterisks. Common Orlando and Walt Disney Global don’t free up attendance statistics as a part of their income or annual reporting. There’s an entire ‘method’ phase beginning on web page 83 of the file, which states that numbers are got “thru quite a few resources, together with statistics furnished immediately by means of the operators, historic numbers, monetary stories, the funding banking neighborhood, native tourism organizations, {and professional} estimates the place vital.”
The file is going on to provide an explanation for why maximum theme park operators voluntarily supply statistics to TEA, and addresses skepticism about inflating or another way manipulating statistics. There has lengthy been fan cynicism about each Common Orlando and Walt Disney Global doing exactly this over time.
On the other hand, we doubt that’s going down right here for a lot of causes (additionally defined beginning on web page 83). The file issues out that misreporting or over-reporting creates issues for the operators in each the lengthy and brief time period. “Within the close to time period, if attendance is up however revenues or profitability aren’t, it raises questions. In the long term, in the end, they’ll hit some degree the place the numbers are too a ways off to be credible.”
That is utterly correct. Any individual who listens to Disney income calls is aware of that the important thing metric with which the corporate is outright obsessed is in keeping with capita or guesting spending. That issues a lot more to Wall Side road than attendance, therefore Disney’s previous notorious commentary about an “adverse attendance combine.” You realize what decreases in keeping with capita spending? Mendacity about upper attendance!
For that and a lot of different causes, we consider that numbers for each Walt Disney Global and Common Orlando are correct. They had been proper final yr when the consequences had been higher for Common, and proper this yr when extra favorable for Disney. Should you handiest consider the consequences after they let you know what you wish to have to listen to, that claims extra about you than the file.
Once more, the Themed Leisure Affiliation is the gold usual. Each Disney and Common are top-tier sponsors of TEA and publicly rejoice annual accolades they obtain from the group. There’s a near-certainty that each Disney and Common supply TEA with correct annual attendance statistics. However in the event you nonetheless disagree with the accuracy of this record for no matter reason why, most likely this put up isn’t for you!
With that preface out of the best way, right here’s a take a look at the Most sensible 25 Theme Parks International:
It may well be declaring the most obvious, however the regional proportion adjustments are in large part pushed by means of the surroundings in 2022. The biggest jumps in year-over-year figures got here out of parks in Asia, which had essentially the most restrictive running environments previous to 2023. That’s why the proportion will increase are so prime for Shanghai Disneyland, Hong Kong Disneyland, Common Studios Beijing–and to a lesser extent, the Disney and Common theme parks in Japan.
The place the respective parks had been within the cycle of pent-up call for issues so much–had been they nonetheless using the wave, or had it receded? This can be a giant a part of why the Central Florida theme parks are most commonly underperforming relative to the remainder of the sector. They reopened previous and noticed the majority in their ‘revenge shuttle’ in 2022.
That created an adverse comparability, and made overperformance in 2023 tough, even with Walt Disney Global and different operators pulling more than a few “levers” to lure visitors to go back. However, tasks like higher discounting, go back of Annual Passes, particular occasions, and the hole of latest sights are all examples of the way one of the Orlando parks controlled to eek out good points.
To that time, let’s slender the ones numbers to North The us, right here’s the Most sensible 20:
Magic Kingdom remained peak canine of theme parks—no longer simply #1 at Walt Disney Global, however in all of the international. On the other hand, it’s nonetheless down as in comparison to 2019, when the park reached a staggering 20.96 million visitors. That continues to be the prime water mark for attendance, and it almost certainly received’t be reached once more till Vehicles land opens in 2029.
EPCOT is leapfrogged Hollywood Studios to reclaim the #2 spot of Walt Disney Global parks, with a large 19.8% attendance building up. That was once most probably fueled by means of the primary complete yr of Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind, along side partial years of different additions, development winding down, and an extended pageant season.
With development now totally completed, it’ll be fascinating to look whether or not EPCOT sees a year-over-year building up in 2024. I’d wager in opposition to it. My sturdy suspicion is that Walt Disney Global vastly miscalculated by means of no longer providing a summer season pageant, and the hole of CommuniCore did not anything to force visitation. Nonetheless, even most commonly flat attendance will have to stay EPCOT within the #2 spot. And that proper there explains why the park handiest were given one D23 Expo announcement–a brand new front room.
In the meantime, Disney’s Hollywood Studios dropped by means of 5.5% and Animal Kingdom was once down by means of 2.8%. It’s no twist of fate that those are the 2 parks furthest got rid of from main additions—DHS particularly noticed larger bumps the final two years, which means more difficult comparisons.
Animal Kingdom is simply flailing. After peaking at just about 14 million visitors in 2019, the park has been shedding since, and there’s a not-insignificant probability it’ll fall to part that quantity within the first complete yr (2026) that Epic Universe is open. That suggests we received’t see the total end result or penalties of Epic Universe (relying upon your point of view) till this time in 2027, when the 2026 file is launched.
I’m truthfully shocked that Disney isn’t performing with a better sense of urgency. Understand that those numbers aren’t “information” to Walt Disney Global–they’d’ve noticed those traits emerge over 365 days in the past. As we’ve been announcing for some time, Animal Kingdom is in pressing want of lend a hand and its enlargement will have to’ve opened by means of now.
As an alternative, development will in the end get began in 2025. Frankly, I don’t know the way DAK can escape with not anything to force attendance between at times. Zootopia: Higher Zoogether isn’t going to do the trick–they want a drone display. Most probably extra.
As famous above, attendance is down just about around the board as in comparison to the 2019 file. EPCOT and Disney’s Hollywood Studios are the 2 parks that come the nearest, but it surely does no longer appear to be both will surpass the ones prime water marks anytime quickly. Particularly no longer without a additions this yr and Epic Universe at the horizon subsequent.
It sort of feels like Walt Disney Global is fine with this. No less than, for essentially the most section. As we famous above, in keeping with visitor spending is the corporate’s key metric they usually’ve accomplished enviable effects there. However they’ve additionally introduced extra reductions over the past 18 months. A few of the ones, like Unfastened Eating, in truth do building up in keeping with visitor spending. Others, like the present price tag offers, don’t.
Our place for some time has been that Disney Doesn’t Need Decrease Crowds. The identify of the put up will have to give away our conclusion, however there’s truly extra nuance to it than that. In fact, the corporate needs to have its cake and devour it too: the intersection of upper visitor spending and upper attendance. That means that if in keeping with visitor spending stats may well be maximized concurrently Magic Kingdom breaking the 20 million barrier, Disney would completely take each. That isn’t relatively imaginable, so they target to string the needle and stability the ones wants.
Then there’s Common Orlando. Islands of Journey was once down 9.3% to ten million visitors whilst Common Studios Florida additionally fell 9.3% to 9.75 million visitors.
Common apologists are prone to hand wave this away, announcing that enthusiasts had been suspending journeys till Epic Universe. We’re skeptical of that. Whilst it’s completely true that folks put off journeys for brand spanking new choices, this in most cases happens within the months main as much as openings, no longer the years. It’s very tough to consider the typical visitor in January 2023 opting to do away with a discuss with for any other 2+ years. That simply was once no longer going down at any significant scale. It isn’t how most people operates.
And in truth, Comcast has no longer even made that declare on contemporary income calls to excuse worsening effects. On the contrary, they’ve attributed their (documented) slowdown on pent-up call for for different shuttle choices together with cruises and world tourism, the energy of the greenback, and normalization post-pent-up call for.
Common executives additionally conceded their decrease attendance to a lull in new appeal choices: “We haven’t introduced a big new appeal in Orlando since VelociCoaster in 2021, in anticipation of Epic Universe,” defined Jason Armstrong, Comcast’s CFO throughout a up to date income name.
For its section, the file attributes a “huge section” of Orlando’s underperformance (relative to world numbers) to world shuttle that has nonetheless no longer returned to pre-pandemic ranges. In addition they level to the relative energy of the U.S. greenback, which makes inbound world shuttle a lot much less horny. Consistent with the file, Orlando operators additionally cited a lower in crew shuttle as a key reason why for decrease numbers.
Although efficiency somewhere else within the U.S. was once solid or up, the load Florida has at the complete North American marketplace pulled moderate numbers down, leading to little or no internet expansion for all of the North American area. However, Orlando stays a powerful number one hub of the trade.
There is also a lull, however the celebration is a ways from over, in keeping with the Themed Leisure Affiliation. They indicate that Disney has pledged $60 billion for world funding over the following decade, shopping to “turbocharge” Disney Stories. SeaWorld Orlando could also be proceeding the multi-year investments in its belongings, together with new curler coasters, water slides and extra. After all, Common’s giant funding in Epic Universe, scheduled to open in 2025, will create main buzz for the marketplace.
Turning to statement, we’ll strive to reply to the most obvious query: what do those numbers imply?
“There are 3 varieties of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” This is very a lot apt right here, and underscores the purpose that you have to draw quite a few conclusions from those numbers relying upon the place your theme park allegiances lie. Some Disney diehards would possibly spotlight the full efficiency relative to its crosstown competitor, while Common acolytes will indubitably level to Epic Universe.
In truth, I believe each are honest, albeit no longer for the explanations enthusiasts suppose. Walt Disney Global has opened a lot more since 2021 than Common Orlando. Lovers appear to suppose it’s no longer sufficient for no matter reason why, however within the eyes of most people, there’s been so much–and it has carried out smartly.
No longer handiest that, however Common overperformed previous to this, having already long past all out to draw Annual Passholders and lure different guests. That ended in a blockbuster 2022 for Common, with the ones parks returning to fact final yr. In contrast, Walt Disney Global was once simply in the end beginning to “pull levers” (in Disney parlance) to entice again locals and enthusiasts final yr.
So for Walt Disney Global to just document those leads to a yr when it had extra new choices and was once endeavor tasks to spice up attendance…that’s no longer nice. Particularly whilst you account for the truth that Disney had no main appeal openings after this, and received’t till 2027.
Walt Disney Global will likely be reliant on celebrations, promotions, and leisure to force attendance in the following couple of years. That might paintings! The brand new Disney Starlight midnight parade will likely be a big draw for enthusiasts in 2025, but it surely’ll most probably take greater than that to incentivize most people (at scale) to e-book holidays. It’ll be fascinating to look what else Disney has up its sleeve for the following couple of years, and whether or not that’s sufficient to forestall erosion of marketplace proportion to Common.
Conversely, Common is down as a result of Epic Universe–however no longer by means of distinctive feature of visitors delaying journeys. It’s as a result of that has been the main focal point of funding for Comcast, so there was not anything main since 2021 when VelociCoaster opened. (That suggests they, themselves aren’t counting the Minions and DreamWorks stuff.)
The drawback of that is that 2024 is almost certainly going to be any other tough yr with extra decreases for Common Orlando. The upside is that Comcast is almost certainly completely wonderful with this, and it creates a juicy comparability that’ll be simple to blow out of the water as soon as Epic Universe opens.
It’ll be fascinating to look how attendance fares at Common Studios Florida and Islands of Journey as soon as Epic Universe opens. Traditionally, new gates have come on the brief time period expense of current ones–however Common is apparently intent on bundling Epic Universe get entry to into multi-day programs that “pressure” visitors to discuss with the legacy parks. It’s a daring technique–we’ll see if it will pay off for them.
Briefly, luck for Central Florida theme parks is lovely easy: in the event you construct it, they are going to come.
Time and time once more, the TEA numbers have borne this out. Animal Kingdom noticed a identical explosion post-Pandora, whilst Superstar Wars: Galaxy’s Edge and Toy Tale Land had been giant for Disney’s Hollywood Studios. Closing yr’s numbers for EPCOT inform a identical tale, with the park in the end benefitting from Cosmic Rewind and the additions that got here ahead of it. In the meantime, Magic Kingdom noticed a modest spice up from TRON Lightcycle Run.
Similarly as vital, the TEA file displays the reverse: when parks pass too lengthy between opening new sights, their attendance suffers. If you wish to have one “narrative” to remove from those attendance statistics, that are meant to be it! For something, it’s true. For any other, it’s the narrative that advantages us all and places us all at the identical “aspect” moderately than the unending Common vs. Disney discourse that makes us all sound like bizarre cultists. Most significantly, it’s the point of view that encourages theme parks to take a position more cash into enlargement and opening new sights.
Clearly, there are macroeconomic and different externalities that have an effect on attendance. With that stated, the most important ‘lesson’ to be discovered is that construction cool new stuff will increase attendance. It’s loopy that that is even a lesson, as it sort of feels patently glaring. However Disney and different operators have performed video games over time, seeking to extract upper spending or optimize with out including anything else new.
Fortunately, it seems that that technology is over–as evidenced by means of the blockbuster D23 Expo. Or a minimum of, it’s over till they “fail to remember” this lesson and choose to take a position billions within the subsequent NextGen folly. Within the intervening time, it will have to be an improbable decade to be a Central Florida theme park fan as each Common and Disney make investments billions upon billions of greenbacks to draw new guests. Irrespective of which aspect “wins” or “loses” within the close to time period, we as enthusiasts all win in the longer term!
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Your Ideas
What do you call to mind the TEA World Sights Attendance File? Ideas at the effects for Common Orlando or Walt Disney Global? Any colour statement of your personal so as to add? Do you compromise or disagree with our exams and forward-looking predictions? Any questions we will will let you solution? Listening to your comments—even whilst you disagree with us—is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please proportion your ideas beneath within the feedback!
