Phocuswright analysts percentage their predictions for 2026

As we kick off 2026, Phocuswright analysts have their eyes educated on what would possibly occur within the new yr.

The gang has ideas on how applied sciences will advance the business, together with agentic synthetic intelligence (AI), biometrics and extra. Studies and personalization are more likely to stay a focal point, in keeping with analysts, and adjustments in pricing and flooring transportation are at the desk too. 

Learn their predictions in complete beneath.

Editor’s observe: Responses had been edited for readability and brevity.

Fabián González, marketplace analyst, Spain

• The inexorable integration of AI into each and every degree of journey will, mockingly, sharpen the focal point on what actually issues—the human component. From inspiration to reserving and during the journey revel in, AI will enlarge, no longer substitute, the price of human connection that are meant to by no means had been overpassed.  
• We already depend on biometrics on our telephones—whether or not fingerprint or facial reputation—to log into platforms and apps or to authorize bills from our virtual wallets. Your next step is leveraging biometrics to lift the journey adventure itself, from airport passport keep an eye on to resort check-in. Vacationers will likely be prepared to make use of their biometric information if, along with making sure anonymity and traceability, it ends up in a noticeably smoother and extra seamless revel in. 

Shadi Kaddoura, senior marketplace analyst, Heart East

• By way of 2026, the Heart East’s journey business will likely be profoundly influenced by way of complex virtual era. An ATM/Commute Economics learn about reveals 60% of UAE vacationers already consider AI to plot each and every side in their journeys (as opposed to round 48% in different places), and just about six in 10 have used AI equipment when reserving Heart East vacations. Gulf operators are embedding generative AI into carrier platforms (Sabre’s SynXis Concierge makes use of AI-driven herbal language to deal with visitor queries), whilst airports are rolling out frictionless biometrics: Dubai World’s new “Limitless Good Commute” biometric hall processes passport keep an eye on by way of face reputation in round 14 seconds, with plans to increase absolutely without borders e-gates at Al Maktoum airport.
• Likewise, blockchain “tokenization” is rising in tourism: Ras Al Khaimah’s tourism authority is piloting a blockchain rewards platform that problems virtual journey tokens for curated reports and loyalty. Taken in combination, those signs counsel that by way of 2026, the Heart East will characteristic pervasive AI-driven personalization, seamless biometric identification controls and crypto/blockchain-based cost or loyalty techniques, basically reshaping each traveler revel in and operational fashions. 
• The Heart East will additional cement itself as a hub of extremely‑luxurious, revel in‑pushed tourism. Trade analysts observe the Gulf Cooperation Council is “at the vanguard of redefining luxurious tourism,” with massive investments in international‑magnificence locations thinking about personalization, wellness and multi‑generational attraction. Primary hospitality teams are including a wave of excessive‑finish tasks: 4 Seasons introduced six new Saudi houses, together with a wellness‑orientated lodge and a regenerative lodge. Proof signifies that by way of 2026, Heart East tourism choices will likely be ruled by way of extremely‑luxurious eco‑inns, bespoke cultural‑heritage reports and adapted wellness retreats, as key differentiators within the international journey marketplace. 

Norm Rose, former senior era and company marketplace analyst 

• The business will undergo quite a few rising pains, however finally agentic AI will create new alternatives for supplier-direct whilst reinforcing the price of stock aggregation thru on-line journey companies (OTAs). The day will arrive within the not-too-distant long term the place a easy voice command or calendar access will start up a journey seek and reserving procedure that delivers higher content material and simplifies the method of journey making plans and reserving for the loads. However first, information governance should be addressed, and silos should be damaged down.
• The approaching agentic technology will likely be as important because the trade induced by way of the web itself. There will likely be winners and losers, all dictated by way of how critical present avid gamers take those traits and what sort of funding they make to function within the genAI/agentic long term. Those that forget about this pattern achieve this at their very own peril.

Bing Liu, director, surveys and analytics

• Commute in 2026 will revolve round revel in and personalization, as vacationers transfer clear of checklist-style holidays and search journeys that really feel significant and adapted to their pursuits. As a substitute of merely visiting primary points of interest, folks will search for curated itineraries that replicate their passions—whether or not that’s meals, wellness, tradition, nature or distinctive native encounters. AI-powered era will play a key function, enabling hyper-personalized suggestions and seamless making plans, whilst vacationers themselves will prioritize authenticity, connection and storytelling over merely ticking off landmarks. General, personalization will flip journey into one thing extra intentional and emotionally resonant.

Robert Cole, senior analysis analyst, accommodation and recreational journey

• Agentic AI will develop into a number one interface for go back and forth making plans, however many of the journey business isn’t able, as 3 forces collide. Vacationers desire a private AI agent to holistically imagine their journey birthday party’s personal tastes to create a novel, memorable revel in whilst taking into account complete eligibility for the most productive conceivable offers. Commute providers will be expecting their brokers to give the exhaustive product content material they’ve created for inclusion in each and every attention set but additionally chance that content material serving as the root for conversion thru lower-margin oblique reserving channels. The frontier AI labs, running at below-cost reimbursement ranges to achieve percentage, will want to constrain compute tokens, context home windows or the choice of exterior information assets thought to be for ingestion. Relied on brokers optimized for completeness, execution high quality and industry fashion will likely be preferred. Even the providers and intermediaries offering AI brokers with blank, well-structured content material, stock and insurance policies by way of tough APIs will likely be challenged to discern the good fortune of discovery and conversion efficiency optimization tweaks because of the opacity of decision-making inside massive language fashions (LLMs), sourced from information coalesced throughout a couple of agentic layers.
• Virtual identification will develop into very important for the journey business to deal with chance, compliance and personalization. Just about each and every side of journey items high-friction use instances that contain each traveler and organizational identification, which should be grounded by way of authoritative assets of reality. Including additional complexity, international governance of identification laws isn’t just fragmented, however additionally it is seeing 3 divergent approaches between China, the U.S. and the EU. Commute providers, journey control firms, OTAs, cost suppliers and agentic AI brokers will start requiring cryptographically verifiable proofs of traveler identification, association and be offering eligibility, with industry prison entity standing, really useful possession, licensing, tax compliance, and so on. Supporting virtual identification and cost wallets will cut back fraud, boost up agentic trade and reinforce personalization—all of which require confirmable consider and identification.

Coney Dongre, analysis supervisor

• India and South Korea are swiftly rising as Asia’s subsequent outbound energy blocs, with South Korea nearing 29 million in another country journeys in 2025 and India accelerating at the again of emerging earning and visa liberalization. Their rising scale is already transferring vacation spot priorities, prompting extra adapted merchandise and larger air connectivity. In 2026, those two markets are anticipated to form the area’s best battleground for long-haul tourism.

Mike Coletta, senior supervisor, analysis and innovation

• Lately 2025, 39% of U.S. vacationers have been actively the usage of AI to investigate and plan journeys around the primary AI platforms like ChatGPT and Gemini, Google’s AI Overviews and AI Mode and AI options in journey apps and internet sites. That is up from 28% a yr previous. If this enlargement charge holds, utilization will most likely crack 50% in 2026. In the meantime, use of basic search engines like google for go back and forth analysis and making plans has plummeted to 36% from round 50% in 2023 and 2024. As conversational, self sustaining AI takes over because the entrance door of journey from keyword-based seek, the industry fashions and interfaces we’re used to will start to meaningfully erode.
• Commute startup investment, in each deal rely and bucks, will stay a long way beneath the peaks of 2018 and 2021 as AI continues to purpose uncertainty and structural realignment available in the market amid an advanced financial image. On the other hand, AI-native and AI-enabled firms will punch a long way above their weight in 2026, operating unprecedentedly lean, automatic workflows with tiny groups and restricted capital. Lets even see the primary multimillion-dollar journey corporate constructed by way of a solo founder.

Gary Bowerman, analysis analyst, Asia Pacific

• Inbound journey to China will proceed to make bigger and diversify, specifically from Asian markets. Interest to discover China past the most obvious locations, like Shanghai, Beijing, Hangzhou and Xi’an, is creating, and towns like Chengdu, Chongqing, Changsha, Kunming and Guiyang are firmly on vacationers’ radars. Those be offering get right of entry to to a couple of China’s most pretty landscapes plus distinctive cultures and cuisines—and are rising in popularity with second- and third-time guests to China from Southeast and Northeast Asia. Be careful for emerging global customer numbers to tropical Hainan Island as nicely.
• All eyes will likely be at the development of high-profile, high-speed rail tasks throughout Southeast Asia, significantly in Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia. Overland journey infrastructure is far wanted during the area, and governments covet the a success community financial impact of nationwide bullet teach techniques in China and Japan. Stay your eyes peeled additionally for the newsletter of a feasibility learn about for a Trans-Borneo high-speed railway that might attach Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei at the island of Borneo. This could be a transformational mission for the ones 3 journey economies.

Stan Pawlow, information analyst 

• In 2026, pricing in journey will transfer past conventional dynamic fashions towards real-time contextual pricing, the place algorithms reply to micro-signals like unexpected climate adjustments, native tournament sentiment or even viral social traits. This evolution is powered by way of AI techniques able to drinking and deciphering huge streams of knowledge in milliseconds, adjusting fares dynamically to replicate no longer simply call for however the broader context influencing traveler intent.
• Having a look forward, the aggressive edge will come from streaming analytics pipelines and graph-based fashions (constructed and powered by way of AI) able to filtering significant indicators from noise at scale. For journey manufacturers, mastering contextual pricing isn’t near to income optimization—it’s about making a pricing revel in that feels intuitive, customized and attentive to the arena because it occurs.

Madeline Record, supervisor, analysis and particular tasks

• As American citizens proceed to battle with tightening handbag strings and macroeconomic constraints, we’ll see extra vacationers pooling issues or even gaming their loyalty methods and bank cards so to come up with the money for their recreational journey. Whilst some vacationers might hesitate to go away house altogether or prioritize their on a regular basis bills over their vacations, we also are going to look a contingent of vacationers get much more ingenious with manipulating issues and miles to their want.

Lorraine Sileo, senior analyst and founding father of Phocuswright Analysis

• I feel the business is able to transfer on from speculating what AI can do (e.g., agentic reserving, seamless journey) to studying and recording precise effects. There will likely be some experiments that merely fail since the marketplace isn’t able, and a few surprises, as AI will get examined and evaluated. There will likely be much less communicate of AI changing the whole thing and extra dialogue about partnerships and integrations that mix legacy techniques (which nonetheless dominate) with AI-first platforms. Cooperation will likely be key to good fortune, as no person emblem will be capable of supply an entire finish to finish answer (and customers don’t need that both).
• Commute reserving will develop into extra fragmented as personal label and non-travel products and services evolve (e.g., Chase Commute, Revolut, Capital One) in addition to reserving on ChatGPT or thru social media. New sub manufacturers for reserving will evolve relying on most well-liked loyalty methods, card utilization and cost choices on an international degree.

As we kick off 2026, Phocuswright analysts have their eyes educated on what would possibly occur within the new yr.

The gang has ideas on how applied sciences will advance the business, together with agentic synthetic intelligence (AI), biometrics and extra. Studies and personalization are more likely to stay a focal point, in keeping with analysts, and adjustments in pricing and flooring transportation are at the desk too. 

Learn their predictions in complete beneath.

Editor’s observe: Responses had been edited for readability and brevity.

Fabián González, marketplace analyst, Spain

• The inexorable integration of AI into each and every degree of journey will, mockingly, sharpen the focal point on what actually issues—the human component. From inspiration to reserving and during the journey revel in, AI will enlarge, no longer substitute, the price of human connection that are meant to by no means had been overpassed.  
• We already depend on biometrics on our telephones—whether or not fingerprint or facial reputation—to log into platforms and apps or to authorize bills from our virtual wallets. Your next step is leveraging biometrics to lift the journey adventure itself, from airport passport keep an eye on to resort check-in. Vacationers will likely be prepared to make use of their biometric information if, along with making sure anonymity and traceability, it ends up in a noticeably smoother and extra seamless revel in. 

Shadi Kaddoura, senior marketplace analyst, Heart East

• By way of 2026, the Heart East’s journey business will likely be profoundly influenced by way of complex virtual era. An ATM/Commute Economics learn about reveals 60% of UAE vacationers already consider AI to plot each and every side in their journeys (as opposed to round 48% in different places), and just about six in 10 have used AI equipment when reserving Heart East vacations. Gulf operators are embedding generative AI into carrier platforms (Sabre’s SynXis Concierge makes use of AI-driven herbal language to deal with visitor queries), whilst airports are rolling out frictionless biometrics: Dubai World’s new “Limitless Good Commute” biometric hall processes passport keep an eye on by way of face reputation in round 14 seconds, with plans to increase absolutely without borders e-gates at Al Maktoum airport.
• Likewise, blockchain “tokenization” is rising in tourism: Ras Al Khaimah’s tourism authority is piloting a blockchain rewards platform that problems virtual journey tokens for curated reports and loyalty. Taken in combination, those signs counsel that by way of 2026, the Heart East will characteristic pervasive AI-driven personalization, seamless biometric identification controls and crypto/blockchain-based cost or loyalty techniques, basically reshaping each traveler revel in and operational fashions. 
• The Heart East will additional cement itself as a hub of extremely‑luxurious, revel in‑pushed tourism. Trade analysts observe the Gulf Cooperation Council is “at the vanguard of redefining luxurious tourism,” with massive investments in international‑magnificence locations thinking about personalization, wellness and multi‑generational attraction. Primary hospitality teams are including a wave of excessive‑finish tasks: 4 Seasons introduced six new Saudi houses, together with a wellness‑orientated lodge and a regenerative lodge. Proof signifies that by way of 2026, Heart East tourism choices will likely be ruled by way of extremely‑luxurious eco‑inns, bespoke cultural‑heritage reports and adapted wellness retreats, as key differentiators within the international journey marketplace. 

Norm Rose, former senior era and company marketplace analyst 

• The business will undergo quite a few rising pains, however finally agentic AI will create new alternatives for supplier-direct whilst reinforcing the price of stock aggregation thru on-line journey companies (OTAs). The day will arrive within the not-too-distant long term the place a easy voice command or calendar access will start up a journey seek and reserving procedure that delivers higher content material and simplifies the method of journey making plans and reserving for the loads. However first, information governance should be addressed, and silos should be damaged down.
• The approaching agentic technology will likely be as important because the trade induced by way of the web itself. There will likely be winners and losers, all dictated by way of how critical present avid gamers take those traits and what sort of funding they make to function within the genAI/agentic long term. Those that forget about this pattern achieve this at their very own peril.

Bing Liu, director, surveys and analytics

• Commute in 2026 will revolve round revel in and personalization, as vacationers transfer clear of checklist-style holidays and search journeys that really feel significant and adapted to their pursuits. As a substitute of merely visiting primary points of interest, folks will search for curated itineraries that replicate their passions—whether or not that’s meals, wellness, tradition, nature or distinctive native encounters. AI-powered era will play a key function, enabling hyper-personalized suggestions and seamless making plans, whilst vacationers themselves will prioritize authenticity, connection and storytelling over merely ticking off landmarks. General, personalization will flip journey into one thing extra intentional and emotionally resonant.

Robert Cole, senior analysis analyst, accommodation and recreational journey

• Agentic AI will develop into a number one interface for go back and forth making plans, however many of the journey business isn’t able, as 3 forces collide. Vacationers desire a private AI agent to holistically imagine their journey birthday party’s personal tastes to create a novel, memorable revel in whilst taking into account complete eligibility for the most productive conceivable offers. Commute providers will be expecting their brokers to give the exhaustive product content material they’ve created for inclusion in each and every attention set but additionally chance that content material serving as the root for conversion thru lower-margin oblique reserving channels. The frontier AI labs, running at below-cost reimbursement ranges to achieve percentage, will want to constrain compute tokens, context home windows or the choice of exterior information assets thought to be for ingestion. Relied on brokers optimized for completeness, execution high quality and industry fashion will likely be preferred. Even the providers and intermediaries offering AI brokers with blank, well-structured content material, stock and insurance policies by way of tough APIs will likely be challenged to discern the good fortune of discovery and conversion efficiency optimization tweaks because of the opacity of decision-making inside massive language fashions (LLMs), sourced from information coalesced throughout a couple of agentic layers.
• Virtual identification will develop into very important for the journey business to deal with chance, compliance and personalization. Just about each and every side of journey items high-friction use instances that contain each traveler and organizational identification, which should be grounded by way of authoritative assets of reality. Including additional complexity, international governance of identification laws isn’t just fragmented, however additionally it is seeing 3 divergent approaches between China, the U.S. and the EU. Commute providers, journey control firms, OTAs, cost suppliers and agentic AI brokers will start requiring cryptographically verifiable proofs of traveler identification, association and be offering eligibility, with industry prison entity standing, really useful possession, licensing, tax compliance, and so on. Supporting virtual identification and cost wallets will cut back fraud, boost up agentic trade and reinforce personalization—all of which require confirmable consider and identification.

Coney Dongre, analysis supervisor

• India and South Korea are swiftly rising as Asia’s subsequent outbound energy blocs, with South Korea nearing 29 million in another country journeys in 2025 and India accelerating at the again of emerging earning and visa liberalization. Their rising scale is already transferring vacation spot priorities, prompting extra adapted merchandise and larger air connectivity. In 2026, those two markets are anticipated to form the area’s best battleground for long-haul tourism.

Mike Coletta, senior supervisor, analysis and innovation

• Lately 2025, 39% of U.S. vacationers have been actively the usage of AI to investigate and plan journeys around the primary AI platforms like ChatGPT and Gemini, Google’s AI Overviews and AI Mode and AI options in journey apps and internet sites. That is up from 28% a yr previous. If this enlargement charge holds, utilization will most likely crack 50% in 2026. In the meantime, use of basic search engines like google for go back and forth analysis and making plans has plummeted to 36% from round 50% in 2023 and 2024. As conversational, self sustaining AI takes over because the entrance door of journey from keyword-based seek, the industry fashions and interfaces we’re used to will start to meaningfully erode.
• Commute startup investment, in each deal rely and bucks, will stay a long way beneath the peaks of 2018 and 2021 as AI continues to purpose uncertainty and structural realignment available in the market amid an advanced financial image. On the other hand, AI-native and AI-enabled firms will punch a long way above their weight in 2026, operating unprecedentedly lean, automatic workflows with tiny groups and restricted capital. Lets even see the primary multimillion-dollar journey corporate constructed by way of a solo founder.

Gary Bowerman, analysis analyst, Asia Pacific

• Inbound journey to China will proceed to make bigger and diversify, specifically from Asian markets. Interest to discover China past the most obvious locations, like Shanghai, Beijing, Hangzhou and Xi’an, is creating, and towns like Chengdu, Chongqing, Changsha, Kunming and Guiyang are firmly on vacationers’ radars. Those be offering get right of entry to to a couple of China’s most pretty landscapes plus distinctive cultures and cuisines—and are rising in popularity with second- and third-time guests to China from Southeast and Northeast Asia. Be careful for emerging global customer numbers to tropical Hainan Island as nicely.
• All eyes will likely be at the development of high-profile, high-speed rail tasks throughout Southeast Asia, significantly in Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia. Overland journey infrastructure is far wanted during the area, and governments covet the a success community financial impact of nationwide bullet teach techniques in China and Japan. Stay your eyes peeled additionally for the newsletter of a feasibility learn about for a Trans-Borneo high-speed railway that might attach Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei at the island of Borneo. This could be a transformational mission for the ones 3 journey economies.

Stan Pawlow, information analyst 

• In 2026, pricing in journey will transfer past conventional dynamic fashions towards real-time contextual pricing, the place algorithms reply to micro-signals like unexpected climate adjustments, native tournament sentiment or even viral social traits. This evolution is powered by way of AI techniques able to drinking and deciphering huge streams of knowledge in milliseconds, adjusting fares dynamically to replicate no longer simply call for however the broader context influencing traveler intent.
• Having a look forward, the aggressive edge will come from streaming analytics pipelines and graph-based fashions (constructed and powered by way of AI) able to filtering significant indicators from noise at scale. For journey manufacturers, mastering contextual pricing isn’t near to income optimization—it’s about making a pricing revel in that feels intuitive, customized and attentive to the arena because it occurs.

Madeline Record, supervisor, analysis and particular tasks

• As American citizens proceed to battle with tightening handbag strings and macroeconomic constraints, we’ll see extra vacationers pooling issues or even gaming their loyalty methods and bank cards so to come up with the money for their recreational journey. Whilst some vacationers might hesitate to go away house altogether or prioritize their on a regular basis bills over their vacations, we also are going to look a contingent of vacationers get much more ingenious with manipulating issues and miles to their want.

Lorraine Sileo, senior analyst and founding father of Phocuswright Analysis

• I feel the business is able to transfer on from speculating what AI can do (e.g., agentic reserving, seamless journey) to studying and recording precise effects. There will likely be some experiments that merely fail since the marketplace isn’t able, and a few surprises, as AI will get examined and evaluated. There will likely be much less communicate of AI changing the whole thing and extra dialogue about partnerships and integrations that mix legacy techniques (which nonetheless dominate) with AI-first platforms. Cooperation will likely be key to good fortune, as no person emblem will be capable of supply an entire finish to finish answer (and customers don’t need that both).
• Commute reserving will develop into extra fragmented as personal label and non-travel products and services evolve (e.g., Chase Commute, Revolut, Capital One) in addition to reserving on ChatGPT or thru social media. New sub manufacturers for reserving will evolve relying on most well-liked loyalty methods, card utilization and cost choices on an international degree.