Faculty is again in consultation and crowds have plummeted to their lowest ranges in 3 years for the low season at Walt Disney International. This wait instances record covers knowledge for Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Hollywood Studios, and Animal Kingdom. It additionally gives statement in regards to the why of attendance developments, ‘appears like’ crowds vs. wait instances, and forward-looking predictions for Fall 2024.
Walt Disney International has now not been busy for the previous few months. It used to be a sluggish summer time at Orlando’s theme parks, as mentioned at duration in Summer season (Nonetheless) Is NOT Busy Season at Walt Disney International. That provides our theories as to why summer time used to be slower, in addition to why it’s now not in reality all that unexpected.
All through the corporate’s most up-to-date income name, Disney CEO Bob Iger reiterated this and warned traders of attendance softness and insist moderation thru 2025. That’s additionally not anything new, as the corporate has cautioned of a slowdown at Walt Disney International. They’ve in the past attributed this to the top of “revenge commute,” lapping the fiftieth Anniversary, and deficient climate. The variations now are two-fold.
First, those warnings are now not with reference to Walt Disney International. Again remaining 12 months when this began going down all the way through income calls, there used to be a distinction drawn between Walt Disney International and just about far and wide else, with the adaptation attributed to pent-up call for arriving previous (and thus finishing quicker) in Florida than California, Disney Cruise Line, and the world parks. It made sense and is one thing we witnessed firsthand. Now, the remainder of the Parks & Motels are feeling what started at Walt Disney International.
2nd, there are now not damaging or tough comparisons for Walt Disney International. The fiftieth and pent-up call for ended over twelve months in the past. The comparisons now are in truth fairly favorable, and Walt Disney International remains to be reporting weaker year-over-year effects. This isn’t totally a tale of attendance (the income calls don’t focal point on that as a key metric), however we’re seeing it play out relating to crowds, too. Therefore Walt Disney International simply wrapping up its slowest month and week since 2021!
As all the time, what’s lined in those “crowd” studies is in truth posted wait time knowledge that’s pulled from My Disney Enjoy and compiled into graphs for monitoring and evaluating more than a few days, weeks, months, and years. So much will also be gleaned from posted wait instances, nevertheless it’s now not essentially conclusive of in-park congestion or crowds.
Posted wait instances be offering perception into how busy Walt Disney International is, however they’re an imperfect measure of crowds. They’re virtually all the time inflated, some traces don’t submit wait instances, they don’t account for Lightning Lane adjustments, EPCOT gala’s, and so on. However, wait instances are the one goal measure of crowds that we have got. On-the-ground observations will also be helpful, however additionally they have shortcomings.
Body of reference additionally issues. The vast majority of days in 2024 might be extra crowded than their opposite numbers a decade or extra in the past. Similar is going for evaluating this 12 months to 2020-2021. Truly, the one profitable ancient comparisons are from 2022 to 2024 and 2018 to 2019. In the event you’re anticipating crowd ranges on par with the Nineteen Nineties, Nice Recession or post-COVID reopening, you’re going to be dissatisfied–and conclude that Walt Disney International is “all the time busy.”
We simply wish to be offering those essential caveats to fret the constraints of crowd studies and wait time knowledge for Walt Disney International. In the event you suppose there are too many asterisks connected, that’s truthful–possibly this kind of submit isn’t for you. With that out of the best way, let’s dig into the information and have a look at Walt Disney International wait instances. As all the time, all graphs and stats are courtesy of Thrill-Information.com:
We’ll get started with the per thirty days numbers for Walt Disney International as a complete over the process the remaining 12 months.
What’s maximum attention-grabbing about that is seeing a lower each and every unmarried month since February. In a typical 12 months, there could be a noticeable spike for spring damage and Easter, adopted by way of a shoulder season slowdown after which summer time spike (or two). Even with summers being much less busy within the remaining decade, this used to be the dynamic we had been seeing.
As an alternative, this 12 months has proven a sluggish and secure lower. It’s particularly uncommon for Might to be busier than July, which is one thing that by no means occurs–however did in 2024! Unsurprisingly, August persevered that pattern. If truth be told, let’s zoom out just a little additional…
The above graph presentations per thirty days crowd ranges for the reason that get started of 2019, and from that, we will see that August 2024 used to be the slowest month at Walt Disney International since October 2021.
For reference, October 2021 used to be an excessively bizarre time at Walt Disney International. As you could recall, the Delta variant and reinstated masks regulations put a significant damper on attendance, inflicting a deluge of cancellations from all kinds of visitors (albeit for 2, necessarily reverse, causes). That used to be additional exacerbated by way of fears of Walt Disney International’s fiftieth Anniversary drawing record-setting crowds. Clearly, it didn’t.
On account of the anomalies of crowd ranges in mid-2020 thru early 2022, we seldom use the ones for drawing comparisons. They had been low for unheard of causes that confidently won’t ever be repeated once more. However, it is vitally noteworthy every time crowd ranges fall to lows now not noticed since 2020-2021, as came about remaining month.
With the week by way of week view, we will see that crowds had been quite consistent this summer time. In the event you glance carefully, you’ll be able to spot a downward pattern, nevertheless it’s sluggish. There have been 3 slight spikes–on the tail finish of June, once more on the finish of July, and after all proper earlier than college went again into consultation in August–however even the ones most effective were given numbers again to Might ranges. None of that is unusual for the summer time; it used to be simply decrease this 12 months than prior to now.
What’s additionally now not unexpected is that crowd ranges were losing beginning with the second one week of August. As with the month as a complete, the remaining week of August used to be the slowest at Walt Disney International for the reason that remaining week of September into early October 2021.
Let’s zoom out to peer the weekly knowledge since 2019:
That’s a shocking statistic to start with blush–the bottom crowd week and month since 2021! Nevertheless it in reality shouldn’t be. The similar week remaining 12 months used to be simply slightly busier, with a 25 minute reasonable and 1/10 crowd point as opposed to a 23 minute reasonable and 1/10 crowd point this 12 months. Two mins can upload up over the process an afternoon, however each weeks had been extremely sluggish–the 2 least busy weeks since October 2021!
Given the total trajectory of crowd ranges and the remaining week of August being reliably sluggish year-in and year-out, this shouldn’t be an enormous surprise. I’m quite assured in predicting the remaining week of August 2025 can also be sluggish. Whether or not it’s roughly busy than this 12 months most probably depends upon the wider economic system, Epic Universe, and the Disney Starlight night time parade in addition to a possible summer time tournament.
Person days illustrate most commonly the similar, however with extra bars.
From August 27 to 30, on a daily basis had a median wait time of 19-21 mins. While you’re browsing at resort-wide numbers for a multi-day stretch, the ones are insanely low. Remember that a number of sights backside out at 10 minute or 13 minute wait instances even if they’re stroll ons. Then there are some movies that submit wait instances at the foundation of ways lengthy it’s till the following appearing. So for the stats to be this low, that implies the headliners additionally needed to have a long way decrease wait instances than customary. They usually did!
I used to be within the parks doing field-testing each and every unmarried day of that reach (to start with it used to be intended to be Lightning Lane Multi Go checking out, however I needed to put off the ones plans as it used to be too simple), and I used to be surprised by way of how low crowds had been. Seven Dwarfs Mine Educate with a posted 25 minute wait all the way through the center of the day (on a non-party day!), House Mountain at 10 mins, or even Avatar Flight of Passage being a close to walk-on earlier than 3 pm! In spite of my caveating above about ‘appears like’ crowds vs. wait instances, those numbers paint a wholly correct image of ways issues felt.
Exertions Day weekend in truth noticed a slight spike in crowds, however nonetheless wasn’t dangerous in any respect. The low crowds over the vacation made the rounds on social media, however this shouldn’t be in the least unexpected for readers of this weblog. We defined the ‘why’ of that and presented ancient stats again in Exertions Day Weekend Isn’t Busy at Disney.
For park by way of park research, we’ll get started with Magic Kingdom.
Magic Kingdom has already began its “porcupine trend” of crowds for Celebration Season, with complete working days being noticeably busier than days of Mickey’s Now not So Horrifying Halloween Celebration. (Observe that this does now not come with wait instances all the way through MNSSHP–most effective earlier than it begins.) That is mirrored within the wait time knowledge and it’s much more glaring from the in-park revel in. Suffice to mention, all of Magic Kingdom’s 10 slowest days of the 12 months have come for the reason that get started of August.
See Perfect & Worst 2024 Crowd Days at Magic Kingdom for a fool-proof record of the least and maximum crowded dates at Magic Kingdom between now and December 2024. This features a handful of crimson flag dates to steer clear of in any respect prices.
Animal Kingdom has noticed its crowd ranges in all places this month. Simply remaining week, reasonable wait instances ranged from 20 mins someday to 40 mins every other day. That’s an enormous unfold–actually a doubling–and one with out an obtrusive rationalization.
The excellent news is that, as all the time, early mornings and past due afternoons stay “undefeated” and exact wait instances are minimum all the way through the ones timeframes even on a busier day. Fortunately, the ones busier days will have to be a long way much less commonplace over the process September.
Over at EPCOT, wait instances have flatlined for the reason that get started of summer time.
EPCOT is all the time a wildcard, however I’ll admit that this one stuck me by way of marvel. We all the time indicate that EPCOT is the locals’ park, and Floridians are much more likely to seek advice from for gala’s and environment than rides. This summer time used to be Nutrition EPCOT, explaining the decrease crowds as soon as Flower & Lawn ended.
On the other hand, the 2024 EPCOT Meals & Wine Competition is now underway and it nonetheless hasn’t in reality spiked crowds. If truth be told, the primary two days of the development had 1/10 crowd ranges with 19 minute reasonable waits. I used to be there for the primary 5 days of the development, and “appears like” crowds weren’t any worse. It used to be downright surprising, particularly for the reason that climate for the primary few days used to be high quality (by way of Florida in August and September requirements). I’d be focused on this if I had been Disney control, and it underscores why they may be able to’t simply telephone within the gala’s and be expecting locals to consume up re-microwaved leftovers.
In the end, there’s Disney’s Hollywood Studios.
As all the time, that is the park with the very best reasonable wait instances in all of Walt Disney International, owing to its disproportionate selection of headliners coupled with degree presentations that submit no wait instances in any respect (and thus don’t drag down averages). Might during the 3rd week of August used to be quite unremarkable at DHS.
Then got here remaining week, culminating in August 29. That day had a 20 minute reasonable, which is insanely low by way of Disney’s Hollywood Studios requirements. Low because the crowds had been at EPCOT, I suppose Meals & Wine did pull other people clear of DHS?
For the sake of comparability, right here’s a high-level have a look at the weekly wait time averages for Common Orlando. No marvel right here–it used to be additionally the slowest week of the 12 months at Common (and August used to be the slowest month).
Common has additionally been retaining restricted hours, with neither park open later than 8 pm all the way through common operations all the way through September. One thing tells me that if all 4 Walt Disney International parks did this, fanatics would now not be forgiving, however as all the time, Common will get a cross.
We’ve discussed it earlier than, however Common Orlando has had a coarse 12 months with attendance down 9.3% and Comcast revealing that earnings at Common’s theme parks used to be down 11%. Comcast attributed the lower to a loss of new sights in Orlando, and indicated that this downtrend used to be more likely to proceed till the outlet of Epic Universe in 2025.
Turning to statement, I in truth don’t have a ton so as to add from my on-the-ground stories. The wait instances, by way of and big, inform the whole tale. There’s not anything contradictory within the appears like crowds neither is there any wonderful means to provide an explanation for away the low crowds. Positive, there used to be “some climate” over the vacation weekend, however remaining week used to be in truth quite high quality (once more, by way of Florida in August and September requirements, which could be very a lot graded on a curve).
This is the reason I used to be so laborious at the 2024 EPCOT Meals & Wine Competition. Within the face of falling attendance, it feels just a little like Walt Disney International is asleep on the wheel. I’m bullish in regards to the D23 bulletins and suppose Walt Disney International goes to be in nice form for 2027 thru 2030 or so. The ones might be large drivers of attendance, a lot as Pandora thru Cosmic Rewind equipped a large spice up all the way through that growth segment.
The issue is that 2027, by way of my math, is 3 years away. What’s Walt Disney International’s plan for the quick time period? Disney Starlight Parade is a pleasant get started and may well be an implausible addition for subsequent summer time. However why telephone within the EPCOT gala’s at the moment? Why now not upload leisure or give other people a compelling explanation why to seek advice from at the moment?! Discounting no doubt is helping, however it might probably most effective take them thus far. So what’s the remainder of the plan? It doesn’t look like there may be one.
Taking a look ahead, our expectation is that crowds proceed falling for no less than a pair extra weeks. As mentioned in our record of the 10 Perfect and 10 Worst Weeks to Talk over with Walt Disney International in 2024 to 2025, September is the most efficient month of the 12 months to seek advice from from a wait instances standpoint. With most effective a few exceptions, all the month sees under reasonable attendance.
There’s in reality no “dangerous” time to seek advice from so far as the September 2024 crowd calendar is going. The remaining week or two would be the busiest stretch of the month because of the expiration of price ticket offers. Relying upon what number of locals purchased the ones and are speeding to make use of them on the remaining minute, September may just finally end up being reasonably busier than August. On the other hand, “busier” is a relative time period, as each months will have to be in reality mild in comparison to everything of October. August and September are one of the most remaining bastions of the low season at Walt Disney International.
This has been constantly true at the same time as attendance has spiked all the way through different in the past low season months. While different low season months have got busier, September has stayed the similar–and (knock on picket) all the time will have to stay that manner because of college schedules and no more fascinating climate. There’s an opportunity that September 2024 might be busier than remaining 12 months because of world guests, the top of the price ticket deal, or different wildcards, nevertheless it nonetheless will have to now not be dangerous by way of any goal metric.
In the end, our expectation is that attendance continues to lower over the process the following couple weeks, however most probably now not sufficient for September to take the crown from August because the least crowded month at Walt Disney International in 2023. The largest query is most probably whether or not remaining week will finally end up being the slowest since 2021, or if this week or subsequent week will dethrone it as soon as the mud settles.
Taking a look ahead even additional, the large query marks are team occasions and conference crowds. There’s an outdoor likelihood that the remaining week of September sees an oversized spike due the coming of those, plus early fall breaks for more than a few college districts across the nation. However for essentially the most section, it will have to nonetheless be too early for all of that to meaningfully have an effect on crowds.
My expectation is that the true arrival of fall crowds coincides with Columbus Day weekend, and that continues to boost up with most effective minor reprieves right here and there all the way through the vacation season. Early indicators level to October thru December being the 3 busiest months of the 12 months (on reasonable), albeit with the standard wallet of reasonable crowd ranges between the height vacation weeks. Who is aware of, despite the fact that. Crowds were falling throughout the year and, except reductions, Walt Disney International has carried out completely not anything to trap fanatics to go back.
Making plans a Walt Disney International go back and forth? Know about inns on our Walt Disney International Accommodations Critiques web page. For the place to consume, learn our Walt Disney International Eating place Critiques. To economize on tickets or resolve which sort to shop for, learn our Guidelines for Saving Cash on Walt Disney International Tickets submit. Our What to Pack for Disney Journeys submit takes a novel have a look at suave pieces to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney International Journey Guides will lend a hand. For complete recommendation, the most efficient position to begin is our Walt Disney International Commute Making plans Information for the whole lot you want to understand!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Ideas on early fall crowds at Walt Disney International? Predictions for the remainder of the month or fall low season? In the event you’ve visited inside the remaining month, what did you bring to mind wait instances? Have you ever carried out Magic Kingdom all the way through the day of a MNSSHP night time? What about posted vs. exact wait instances? Do you compromise or disagree with the rest in our record? Any questions we will can help you solution? Listening to your comments–even while you disagree with us–is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please percentage your ideas under within the feedback!
