With the coming of August, Walt Disney International’s strangely cushy summer time is winding down–that means that crowds will have to fall even additional with the unofficial arrival of the “fall” low season and Halloween 2024 at the horizon. This wait occasions record covers journey & day-to-day knowledge for final month at Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Hollywood Studios, and Animal Kingdom.
To reiterate, Walt Disney International has no longer been busy for the previous couple of months. It’s been a gradual summer time at Orlando’s theme parks, as we speak about at duration in Summer season (Nonetheless) Is NOT Prime Crowds Season at Walt Disney International. That gives our theories as to why summer time has been slower, in addition to why it’s no longer in reality all that sudden and is a pattern first noticed in 2016-2018.
Nonetheless, the summer time slowdown has been extra pronounced than even we expected. However two issues are sure: that summer time has no longer been specifically crowded at Walt Disney International, and that during an ordinary 12 months, August and September can be even much less busy than June and July. So it’s no longer that the low crowds are finishing–it’s that they’re at the precipice of shedding to their lowest ranges of the 12 months.
Sooner than delving into the information, we wish to be offering some background as there all the time appears to be pushback in opposition to claims of decrease crowds on a few bases. The primary is from those that visited Walt Disney International just lately and had reports that they had been suggestive of the parks being busy. Perceptions and expectancies are what they’re, so there’s in reality no arguing with or refuting that.
What I can merely say is that there’s no common usual for crowd ranges–it’s all relative. Some fanatics declare Walt Disney International is “all the time busy” now and “there’s no low season.” This isn’t the point of view of crowd calendars. Clearly no longer, in a different way they’d be pointless. “It’s all the time dangerous” isn’t an overly useful method of advising you as to which dates to talk over with, although it’s a lot more concise.
If truth be told, there’s a pronounced distinction that somebody may just really feel between 1/10 days and 10/10 days, and even 3/10 as opposed to 7/10 crowd ranges. With that mentioned, the parks don’t seem to be veritable ghost cities (for probably the most section) permitting you to do snow angels at the flooring at even the bottom ranges. You will see rides with hour-plus posted wait occasions. You will come across spaces of congestion. “Uncrowded” at Walt Disney International way one thing other than it does at Yellowstone Nationwide Park or some random demise mall at the outskirts of the city.
Nonetheless, it’s completely comprehensible that visitors would have firsthand reports that recommend to them Walt Disney International used to be anything else however “gradual.” In all probability their body of reference is 2020, 2016, and even 2008–all occasions when the parks had been much less busy than this summer time. Possibly they’ve by no means visited in any respect and had been crushed by means of the expectancies vs. fact. Possibly they were given unfortunate with journey breakdowns. All of this does occur, so this sort of skepticism is sensible.
Much less good are the feedback, most commonly on social media, with a subtext suggesting we now have some form of time table in short of Walt Disney International attendance to be prime or low. Once we percentage knowledge that crowds are expanding, some people who’re actively cheering for Disney to fail decry the experiences as lies. When crowds are down, others do the similar.
Walt Disney International crowds have (unfortunately) develop into an element of the tradition wars. It’s very silly. Even excluding tradition wars, there’s the sense amongst many disgruntled Disney fanatics that the corporate must “be told a lesson,” whether or not that be courtesy of Epic Universe, decrease crowds, or who is aware of what else. In the end, there’s no time table right here. Walt Disney International attendance is what it’s. No quantity folks discussing the subject places our “thumb at the scale” to switch that.
We’re clearly no longer the arbiters of attendance statistics, both. When it’s down, we record that. When it’s up, we additionally record that. (And that’ll occur in like 2 months!) This has been the case for years, so until our “time table” is like Two-Face from Batman, that argument doesn’t in reality cross muster. (Sorry for venting, the responses to those crowd experiences have simply gotten so tedious and aggravating that I’ve pulled again from doing them as a lot consequently.)
On this explicit case, it’s tricky to argue that we’ve got an time table in spreading “incorrect information” about low crowds until you additionally assume that Disney CEO Bob Iger and CFO Hugh Johnston have the similar time table. All over the final Walt Disney Corporate quarterly profits name, each warned of a looming attendance slowdown for theme parks. No longer handiest that, however Walt Disney International has been underperforming for a number of consecutive quarters as in comparison to the opposite parks and Disney Cruise Line.
If all of that sounds acquainted, it will have to. This additionally isn’t the primary, 2nd, and even 3rd time the corporate has without delay addressed it and indicated that pent-up call for has been exhausted at one of the crucial parks. No, the parks don’t seem to be lifeless or ghost cities or utterly empty, however they’re down as in comparison to the peak of pent-up call for. As we’ve mentioned ahead of, that is infrequently a five-alarm hearth, and there are levers that Disney has been pulling to buoy bookings.
That final profits name used to be again in Might, so it’s previous information at this level. Disney’s subsequent profits name is in per week (August 7), and that are meant to supply further information about the latest quarter. Within the intervening time, Comcast simply held its quarteryl profits name final week, the place the corporate printed that income at Common’s theme parks used to be down 11%.
Common blamed the income drop on a couple of components, together with destructive comparisons to the pent-up call for duration and an building up in different go back and forth choices, comparable to cruises and world tourism, given the power of the buck. Additionally they attributed the lower to a loss of new sights in Orlando. If truth be told, two-thirds of the drop used to be tied to decrease attendance on the corporate’s parks in Florida and California. Executives additional indicated that this downtrend used to be prone to proceed till the hole of Epic Universe in 2025.
There’s no reason why to imagine Disney or Comcast executives are improper or mendacity about any of this. It is going with out pronouncing that Common will see a rebound from Epic Universe. The massive unknown is whether or not Disney additionally will–because of extra folks visiting Orlando and spending time at each–or if the downtrend will proceed at Walt Disney International during 2025. However that’s past the scope of this submit.
With that out of the way in which, let’s dig into the information and have a look at Walt Disney International wait occasions. As all the time, all graphs and stats are courtesy of Thrill-Knowledge.com:
We’ll get started with the per thirty days numbers for Walt Disney International as an entire. This covers each unmarried month from January 2019 (a ways left) to July 2024 (a ways proper), so you’ll see simply present crowds evaluate to previous ones.
It’s tricky to discern, however listed here are July numbers:
- July 2019: 7/10 crowds; 41 minute moderate wait time
- July 2020: 0/10 crowds; 14 minute moderate wait time
- July 2021: 6/10 crowds; 40 minute moderate wait time
- July 2022: 7/10 crowds; 41 minute moderate wait time
- July 2023: 4/10 crowds; 36 minute moderate wait time
- July 2024: 2/10 crowds; 30 minute moderate wait time
July 2020 used to be the beginning of the phased reopening, with attendance capped to any such stage that this knowledge–and just about all dates from that month via Might 2021–will have to be thrown out.
It’s additionally value stating that the drop from 7/10 crowds in July 2022 to two/10 crowds in July 2024 is “handiest” a distinction of eleven mins. That would possibly not appear to be a lot, however that’s how delicate crowd ranges are to shifts in wait occasions. (Additionally, 11 mins for each unmarried enchantment is a large distinction and it in reality provides up over the process the day.)
To me, what’s maximum attention-grabbing about that is seeing a lower each unmarried month since February. In an ordinary 12 months, there can be a noticeable spike for spring wreck and Easter, adopted by means of a shoulder season slowdown after which summer time spike (or two). Even with summers being much less busy within the final decade, this used to be the dynamic we had been seeing.
As an alternative, this 12 months has proven a gradual and stable lower. It’s particularly uncommon for Might to be busier than July, which is one thing that by no means occurs–however did in 2024! All of this can be a giant explanation why we argued that Walt Disney International Wishes ‘Summer season Nightastic’ in 2025. With out creating a concerted effort to show the summer time slowdown round, it’s handiest going to worsen with each and every passing 12 months.
With the week by means of week view, we will be able to see that crowds had been beautiful consistent this summer time. There used to be a slight spike on the tail finish of June, however even that handiest were given numbers again to Might ranges.
Something I do wish to be aware is that Walt Disney International has been laying the bottom for the rollout of Lightning Lane Multi-Cross since Might 20. It’s my robust trust that this has ended in a steady aid of standby wait occasions over the process June and July. I don’t have any method of corroborating this with knowledge–it’s merely a mix of my anecdotal observations and slightly of background wisdom.
Accordingly, it’s extremely most likely that the lower in wait occasions is proportionally greater than the lower in attendance (or appears like crowds, for that subject). By way of how a lot, I don’t have any clue. However this most definitely is a decently major factor and one who the gang knowledge is “lacking,” because it’s just a measure of standby wait occasions…and no longer an reason for them. (Therefore our colour statement!)
Taking a look on the day-to-day knowledge, it’s slightly more uncomplicated to identify the spike on the finish of June, adopted by means of any other lull for the Independence Day vacation weekend. I’m no longer going to rehash the “why” of that–see Low Fourth of July Wait Occasions at Walt Disney International.
What’s additionally simply slightly visual is a slowdown this week after Monday (generally the busiest day of any given week at Walt Disney International). As we’ve mentioned in the past, the final week of July is generally the “final hurrah” of summer time–with vacationers taking holidays that week ahead of getting able for varsity within the weeks that apply.
It’s all the time imaginable that August sees a temporary spike to begin the month, however that’s no longer one thing we’ve noticed lately. On the contrary, the primary week of August has been slower than the final week of July with a good quantity of consistency. It was that mid-August used to be the top of the summer time–now that’s moved ahead to the start of the month, and even the previous couple of days of July.
We haven’t finished park by means of park research shortly, however are going to go back to it for this crowd record because it’s the final replace ahead of Celebration Season in reality throws a monkey wrench into issues.
Let’s get started with Magic Kingdom. The absolute best bars each and every week are nearly all the time Mondays and Tuesdays, and every so often Wednesday. Lowest are usually Saturdays and Sundays. As a normal rule, regardless that, Magic Kingdom is quieter, crowd-wise, than it used to be final 12 months.
See Absolute best & Worst 2024 Crowd Days at Magic Kingdom for a fool-proof listing of the least and maximum crowded dates at Magic Kingdom between now and December 2024. This features a handful of crimson flag dates to keep away from in any respect prices.
As for this summer time at Magic Kingdom, there used to be slightly of a spike all through previews and across the opening of Tiana’s Bayou Journey, however no longer a lot. The reimagined journey hasn’t in reality moved the needle a lot on wait occasions, which is in part to be anticipated because it makes use of a digital queue.
Alternatively, it’s nonetheless attention-grabbing since the journey has been down so much, and the visitors who may well be driving it are (probably) as a substitute doing different issues. It additionally doesn’t seem to be giving Magic Kingdom a lot of an attendance spice up–there’s no longer just about the affect as, say, TRON Lightcycle Run. That is much less sudden. Tiana’s Bayou Journey isn’t brand-new, and its opening date used to be introduced too past due for a near-term spice up from summer time vacationers.
I’m extra curious concerning the lengthy tail of Tiana’s Bayou Journey. Amongst informal visitors, is the reception sure or unfavorable? How do its visitor delight ratings evaluate to Splash Mountain? Are the downtime and reliability woes ‘breaking containment’ from the fan neighborhood and attaining most people? I don’t have the solutions to any of those questions. In truth, it’s in reality tricky to evaluate anything else about this enchantment from the point of view of the moderate visitor–slightly than the polarized fan neighborhood.
Animal Kingdom has upper wait occasions on moderate, however it additionally has a ways fewer rides than Magic Kingdom.
Except for at the very worst days of the 12 months, Animal Kingdom is a ways and away the park at Walt Disney International the place the crowds are probably the most “beatable.” As long as you arrive early or past due, you completely don’t wish to purchase Lightning Lane Multi Cross right here.
In case you’re going all out and feature a vast finances, you could disagree. To each and every their very own, I assume. At the plus aspect, maximum visitors do trust us, which is why there aren’t tiers at Animal Kingdom and why it’s the most cost effective park for LLMP and why it has the most efficient stock. Chances are you’ll wish to take into accounts all of that–and the why of that–ahead of purchasing.
EPCOT wait occasions are probably the most attention-grabbing.
We all the time indicate that EPCOT is the locals’ park, and Floridians are much more likely to talk over with for gala’s and setting than rides. (In the event that they don’t do rides, they don’t affect crowd ranges–although they do building up congestion or traces for meals cubicles!) Locals also are much more likely than vacationers to cancel park plans on the final minute if the elements is dangerous–and it’s been a scorching and wet month.
On account of all this, wait occasions regularly don’t inform the whole tale at EPCOT. This summer time, they do. No less than, in our revel in. EPCOT has been lifeless since June. There were a couple of exceptions to that (consistent with the wait occasions), however we weren’t there on any of the ones days, so I will not talk to that.
This in reality makes me wonder if Walt Disney International regrets the verdict to shorten Flower & Lawn and Meals & Wine–or not to introduce a brand new summer time pageant. The inner considering used to be that there have been diminishing returns at the longer gala’s, with locals getting “pageant fatigue” the final couple years.
Neatly, I feel that is a type of classes that issues can all the time worsen. It completely used to be true that locals misplaced hobby within the overly lengthy gala’s. It’s additionally true that no pageant in any respect is even worse for EPCOT attendance and wait occasions. (Once more, climate may be an element–however it’s no longer like final summer time used to be great!) I in reality surprise how Walt Disney International will adapt subsequent 12 months. Obviously, “Vitamin EPCOT” for just about 3 consecutive months isn’t the solution. Ouch.
In spite of everything, there’s Disney’s Hollywood Studios.
As all the time, that is the park with the absolute best moderate wait occasions in all of Walt Disney International, owing to its disproportionate choice of headliners coupled with level displays that submit no wait occasions in any respect (and thus don’t drag down averages). Summer season has been somewhat unremarkable at DHS. Slower than final August or this wintry weather, however no longer considerably so.
I’m in fact reasonably shocked that Disney’s Hollywood Studios didn’t see extra of a lower within the lead-up to the release of Lightning Lane Multi-Cross. Or perhaps it did, and this knowledge is what that appears like. The summer time wait time moderate at DHS used to be nearly 10 mins less than final 12 months. It’ll be attention-grabbing to peer whether or not this pattern reverses. As we’ve famous, DHS has emerged early-on as the most efficient park for LLMP. (See What’s Up with Lightning Lane Multi Cross Availability at Disney International?)
Taking a look ahead, climate is prone to play an oversized function (much more so than commonplace for summer time) in dictating crowd ranges for the following couple of weeks. Meteorologists are forecasting highs within the mid-90s and rain each unmarried day for as a ways out because the prolonged forecast is going. In different phrases, a mean August for Central Florida! However wait, there’s extra.
In keeping with the Nationwide Storm Heart (NHC), there’s a disturbance monitoring in the course of the northern Caribbean islands may just shape into Tropical Typhoon Debby because it crawls close to the japanese Gulf of Mexico and Florida this weekend into early subsequent week. Clearly, so much may just alternate between from time to time with the hurricane device’s monitoring, however without reference to the place it is going, Florida will most likely see a vital building up in rainfall this weekend into early subsequent week.
I don’t find out about you, however for me, the very best method to bring in the beginning of Halloween season is…exams notes…a 93° prime and triple-digit “appears like” temperature plus a tropical hurricane scare. That’s just about the forecast for the primary Mickey’s No longer So Horrifying Halloween Celebration of the 12 months. On a wholly unrelated programming be aware, I’ve made the “tricky” resolution to wait the D23 Expo in Anaheim, the place highs shall be within the mid-80s with lows within the mid-60s and nil probability of rain. I’ll catch MNSSHP later within the season.
In the end, it’ll be attention-grabbing to peer what occurs in the following few weeks with crowds at Walt Disney International. Southern college districts will get started going again into consultation inside the subsequent week; a number of main ones together with Atlanta and the Gulf Coast had their first days these days–August 1! In Central Florida, each Osceola and Orange County faculties return into consultation on August 12, 2024.
It’s imaginable that this week sees slightly of a last-minute surge of Southerners, however it’s additionally imaginable that the elements helps to keep a large number of locals sitting at the sidelines. Irrespective of how this week performs out, there will have to be a extra pronounced drop-off across the center of the month (until the elements will get in reality dangerous, by which case, it’ll arrive previous) and subsequent week. The next week will have to see a good sharper drop, heralding the unofficial get started of the autumn low season at Walt Disney International.
As a normal subject, it’s protected to be expecting low season crowd ranges even less than the low issues of June and July by means of subsequent week. Moderate wait occasions will have to be at or under the 30 minute mark as of subsequent week. That’s just right sufficient for round 1/10 to two/10 at the crowd calendar, which isn’t too shabby!
We’ll see whether or not the stage to which the ones predictions finally end up being correct, or if Walt Disney International crowds and wait occasions throw us any other curveball. We’ll proceed tracking crowds and record again in past due August or early September after the beginning of Mickey’s No longer So Horrifying Halloween Celebration.
Making plans a Walt Disney International travel? Find out about inns on our Walt Disney International Inns Critiques web page. For the place to devour, learn our Walt Disney International Eating place Critiques. To save cash on tickets or resolve which sort to shop for, learn our Guidelines for Saving Cash on Walt Disney International Tickets submit. Our What to Pack for Disney Journeys submit takes a novel have a look at suave pieces to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney International Journey Guides will lend a hand. For complete recommendation, the most efficient position to begin is our Walt Disney International Commute Making plans Information for the whole thing you wish to have to grasp!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Ideas on past due summer time crowds at Walt Disney International? Predictions for August 2024 or fall low season? In case you’ve visited inside the final month or so, what did you recall to mind crowds? What about posted vs. precise wait occasions? Any parks, days of the week, or occasions of day noticeably worse than others? Do you compromise or disagree with anything else in our record? Any questions we will be able to let you solution? Listening to your comments–even while you disagree with us–is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please percentage your ideas under within the feedback!
