It’s been a season of curler coaster crowds at Walt Disney Global–top highs adopted by way of low lows–a development that’ll proceed with the coming of extra vacation weekends and faculty breaks this iciness. This wait instances file stocks information for the ultimate month and year-over-year comparisons, plus our theories as to what’s taking place with attendance & traces–and why wait instances are getting worse at portray an entire image of crowds.
Something those crowd stories now not want to do is be offering an extended preface to lend a hand provide an explanation for their strengths and boundaries, or addressing misconceptions about crowds. That’s as a result of I’ve kicked that out to its personal checklist of the “Best” 10 Techniques Walt Disney Global Enthusiasts Are Fallacious About Crowds. That’s value studying if you need a greater working out of WDW attendance patterns, seems like crowds vs. wait instances, and a couple of relatively simple tactics to “beat” the crowds.
That suggests we will dig proper in and temporarily recap the vacation season. Christmas is now formally within the books, with Magic Kingdom taking down its decor and turning off the tune as of the day before today (January 15). That makes it a great time to do a autopsy on crowds. Wait instances for Walt Disney Global as an entire had been down noticeably on a year-over-year foundation from mid-November thru mid-January. This doesn’t imply there weren’t 9/10 or 10/10 crowd stage days–there completely had been–so let’s spoil down what it does imply…
Jersey Week thru Veterans Day noticed a slight spike to average territory, with crowds plummeting the week after to lows rivaling their August and September lows. I used to be within the parks for many of this time, and my anecdotal belief used to be that it wasn’t too unhealthy. Even the busiest stretch wasn’t unhealthy, particularly when it got here to Lightning Lane or technique trying out. That little lower than per week ahead of Thanksgiving week is one to focus on in 2025.
Unsurprisingly, Thanksgiving week used to be the busiest of November with crowds arriving the Sunday ahead of, peaking on Monday, and proceeding till Thursday. Via Friday, the pointy downtrend had already begun. However even at its peak, Thanksgiving week used to be now not really busy. Crowd ranges, no less than as measured by way of wait instances, ended up being average. (As all the time, congestion is a unique tale.)
That together with the primary two weeks of December all ended up having low crowd ranges. All through the primary 3 weeks of December, moderate wait instances around the entirety of Walt Disney Global ranged from 26 to 29 mins. The ones are exceptionally just right crowd ranges, and not up to ultimate yr (which used to be not up to the former yr, too).
Maximum unusually, wait instances dropped every week, making our favourite week of all of the yr at Walt Disney Global the “busiest” of the bunch. We’re nonetheless speaking low ranges, however typically every week of December will get steadily busier.
My very best bet is that upper costs are having a deterrent impact on attendance out of doors of vacation home windows (that means visitors who aren’t beholden to university breaks are extra prone to comparability store dates in accordance with worth), and that’s one thing value retaining in thoughts. With revenge commute firmly within the rearview replicate, many shoppers are turning into extra cost-conscious and not more unfastened spending. (This is able to provide an explanation for a large number of different traits we’ve seen in recent times.)
What got here subsequent confirmed the limitation of upper costs having a deterrent impact on attendance all through college breaks. The week of Christmas had a 46 minute moderate wait time–20 mins upper than the week straight away ahead of it–for a 9/10 crowd stage that used to be sufficient to make it the busiest week since Easter.
The week encompassing New Yr’s Eve had a 50 minute moderate for 10/10 crowd ranges, making it, as soon as once more, the busiest of the yr at Walt Disney Global. Hardly ever a marvel, because the week of NYE is continually the worst of the yr. (Observe that each vacations fell on Wednesdays, so the ones weeks in fact integrated days ahead of and after every.)
Additionally unsurprising is that crowds have dropped since then. Remaining week had a 33 minute moderate for 4/10 crowds, and this week-to-date is sitting at 25 mins for 1/10 crowd ranges. Those traits are roughly what you’d be expecting, however that also doesn’t even start to inform the whole tale. We’ll quilt what this implies and, in all probability extra importantly, what it doesn’t imply, underneath.
First, right here’s a have a look at weekly wait time traits courtesy of thrill-data.com simply to position this all into standpoint:
This presentations weekly wait time information relationship again to 2019. The left height is that Christmas and New Yr’s Eve, from ahead of the arena went sideways (therefore the distance for a pair months in 2020). Then there’s a number of unnecessary information from mid-2020 and 2021, adopted by way of an identical peaks at the different part for the ultimate 3 years.
The week within the lead-up to New Yr’s Eve in overdue 2023 is the tallest line on that graph (slightly), with a median wait time of 61 mins. That’s 11 mins busier than the related week in 2024. However once more, there isn’t actually a fully related week. December 31, 2023 used to be a Sunday, that means that used to be a complete week for the needs of those timeframes. So it’s now not an apples to apples comparability.
Nonetheless, 2023’s week main as much as New Yr’s Eve used to be the busiest unmarried week at Walt Disney Global because the similar week in overdue 2019 into early 2020. That is specifically notable as a result of 2023 used to be differently a slower yr than 2022. We’ve been speaking in regards to the exhaustion of pent-up call for for some time, but it surely in fact began ultimate yr with maximum weeks being slower than 2022. The week of New Yr’s Eve used to be the uncommon–and critical–exception to that.
Even with out apples to apples comparisons, you’ll be able to it appears that evidently see this sluggish weekly downtrend from 2022 highs to 2023 and 2024. It’s most certainly harder to discern, however 2019 wait instances sit down slightly under 2022. It bears emphasizing that wait instances are now not a proxy for park attendance. There are such a large amount of issues that affect posted wait instances information and make annual comparisons from 2019 to now needless (unfastened FastPass+ vs. paid Lightning Lanes, and the usage of every being one biggie). However we’re getting forward of ourselves–extra alongside those traces underneath.
Right here’s a have a look at day-to-day wait instances over the process the ultimate yr:
The some distance left begins with mid-January 2024, and the some distance proper is mid-January 2025. Clearly, all of the days in between are in between.
Take a look at the some distance left facet. The primary giant spike there’s Presidents’ Day, then early Spring Smash, adopted by way of Easter. What’s maximum noticeable, I believe, is how in large part increased the ones days are as in comparison to the post-Easter drop-off in early April. That is exactly what brought on us to write down Iciness (Nonetheless) Is No longer Off-Season at Walt Disney Global ultimate yr. After virtually a complete yr of declining wait instances (as opposed to the similar months within the prior yr), January thru March 2024 noticed wait instances building up.
It didn’t ultimate. Those that observe crowd patterns want no reminder, however ultimate summer time’s “efficiency” revived statement that Summer time (Nonetheless) Is NOT Top Crowds Season at Walt Disney Global, with different websites even claiming it’s now low season. It isn’t, as must be glaring by way of the prolonged sea of inexperienced beginning in overdue August.
Now in equity, there have been two hurricanes that in combination charge Walt Disney Global $130 million in misplaced earnings. Even at Disney costs, that quantities to a large number of cancellations, explaining why overdue September in the course of the first few weeks of October had been artificially depressed. Fall spoil nonetheless noticed a comparative spike, however now not just about to the level as customary–or it will’ve however for the hurricanes.
Nonetheless, the decrease wait instances endured into portions of November and December, and there’s no climate to provide an explanation for the ones away. Similarly as vital, this yr’s wait instances fell off a cliff on January 12, 2025 to ranges some distance underneath the similar dates ultimate yr. So the massive query turns into…are there any alternative ways to provide an explanation for this away?
Sure, no less than to a point. Frankly, there should be, as Disney hasn’t reported a steep drop off in attendance on its profits calls. They did warn traders of attendance softness and insist moderation thru 2025 all through one profits name previous within the yr. On the other hand, the newest quarter noticed “related” customer numbers to the prior-year quarter, suggesting attendance used to be flat or handiest down reasonably.
Against this, Walt Disney Global’s wait instances do display a steep drop, extra like 10%. This got here as quarterly earnings larger, and annual earnings reached a brand new file, up by way of 5% as opposed to the prior yr. That’s now not simply Walt Disney Global, despite the fact that; it additionally contains Disneyland and the world parks, in addition to (in all probability maximum significantly) Disney Cruise Line. So now not a lot can also be gleaned from that.
This comes on the similar time when Common reported earnings for its theme parks department down 5.3% on lighter attendance (to an unknown level). The adaptation is that Common opened Tremendous Nintendo Global in Hollywood in early 2023, and noticed a pointy drop-off ultimate yr after that. In Orlando, enthusiasts had been suspending visits within the lead-up to Epic Universe. No longer a lot we will surmise about Walt Disney Global attendance from any of this.
In our view, the one largest reason behind the drop in wait instances is that Walt Disney Global made main adjustments to its queueing insurance policies in mid-2024. Wait instances haven’t been as top since–even on comparably congested days.
We defined this in Right here’s Why Standby Traces and Lightning Lanes Are Transferring Sooner at Walt Disney Global and feature mentioned it in different places. That’s actually value studying if you wish to perceive the rising disconnect between ‘seems like’ crowds and wait instances.
All through our vacation season visits to EPCOT, specifically, we actually felt this. Even on random weekdays all through some of the quieter weeks of December, congestion used to be top. In the event you had been simply strolling round taking part in the ambience, as many visitors had been obviously doing, you could possibly’ve perceived what felt like 10/10 crowd ranges. Wait instances, however, mirrored crowd ranges of round 4/10 to six/10 on the ones days.
It used to be a an identical tale in Magic Kingdom, particularly within the evenings on non-party dates. The ones surely really feel like they’re getting worse, to the purpose that I’d danger a bet that Walt Disney Global’s experiment in providing unfastened Park Hoppers–virtually surely performed to normalize attendance all through social gathering season–backfired and made Magic Kingdom busier on dates it used to be open later.
We’ve mentioned all of this a number of instances during the last couple of months, but it surely all bears reiterating as Iciness 2025 heats up. EPCOT’s Pageant of the Arts begins the next day to come (January 17, 2025), and this annual tournament has change into a fan-favorite that’s a large draw for locals and vacationers alike.
This weekend is a vacation weekend, so it’d most likely see a spike in attendance regardless, however we’re expecting that shall be sustained. Simply as we wrote ultimate yr, iciness nonetheless isn’t low season–and that’s nonetheless (nonetheless nonetheless) the case even supposing enchantment wait instances counsel differently.
In the end, this does provide us with one thing of a quandary in how to talk about wait instances and crowds going ahead.
Wait instances are used as a proxy for crowd ranges as a result of they’re the one purpose measure for that. There’s actually no selection–even supposing somebody had unending assets and may just make use of 8 researchers to be within the parks each and every unmarried day from opening till shut, that may nonetheless be too anecdotal to be of price. And on the finish of the day, wait instances nonetheless are what’s necessary to maximum planners, even supposing congestion can depart an oversized affect.
It however bears strongly underscoring this rising disconnect between wait instances and congestion or seems like crowds. We will be able to handiest think that wait instances will proceed to be down considerably year-over-year because of the aforementioned queueing coverage adjustments and postponed visits within the lead-up to Epic Universe (and Disney Starlight Evening Parade), however handiest the latter affects attendance. The ones coverage adjustments will proceed to make for tricky year-over-year wait time comparisons till round Summer time 2025, which is correct across the time attendance may just additionally see a spice up because of the brand new additions. That would possibly make for a double-whammy the place the numbers move from showing down considerably year-over-year to up by way of an identical margins.
All of that is my manner of claiming not to take wait instances and crowd stage reporting too significantly at the moment, no less than on the subject of year-over-year comparisons. This website online and others are going to proceed sharing the the knowledge is trending downwards. That’s true. However it’s all the time been the case that wait instances offered an incomplete image of crowds. Now it’s actually true, to the purpose that you just may well be upset or shocked in case you simply have a look at the stats and predict the parks to be ghost cities all through your talk over with. Attendance may well be down reasonably, but it surely gained’t be to almost that level.
On the contrary, all it takes for even heavier seems like crowds year-over-year is extra locals and enthusiasts within the parks versus first-timers. The previous teams are much more likely to wander round and do issues instead of sights, while the latter focal point extra on rides. And this would possibly rather well occur if extra APs are in move, price tag offers turn out widespread, or first-timers recoil at the price of Disney holidays. That’s to mention not anything of diminished capability on account of refurbishments, closures and building. The key is that there are a large number of variables that give a contribution to congestion or seems like crowds, and wait instances are just one piece of the puzzle.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
What do you call to mind wait time and crowd traits over the process the ultimate 6-7 months, however particularly all through the new vacation season and Iciness 2025? Be expecting ‘seems like’ crowds to be heavy over the following couple of months, even supposing the wait instances counsel a slowdown? Every other crowd concerns we didn’t have in mind or main points we ignored/were given flawed? Do you compromise or disagree with my evaluate? Any questions we will allow you to resolution? Listening to your comments–even whilst you disagree with us–is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please percentage your ideas underneath within the feedback!
