Final 12 months’s attendance statistics were launched by way of the TEA, reflecting a upward push for Walt Disney Global (albeit an overly modest one) and a deepening decline for Common Orlando forward of Epic Universe. This appears on the winners & losers because the restoration to 2019 ranges continues, with remark about adjustments at WDW, UOR, Disneyland, and the world theme parks.
For starters, the 2024 World Points of interest Attendance File is a collaboration of the Themed Leisure Affiliation (TEA) and the economics observe at AECOM. Most sensible international theme parks, amusement parks, water parks, museums, and theme park operators are named, ranked by way of attendance, and business traits are known.
The World Points of interest Attendance File is thought of as the gold same old throughout the theme park business, and TEA is extremely credible. Whilst I can’t discuss to Common’s view on TEA, I will be able to ascertain with whole sure bet that the Walt Disney Corporate perspectives the World Points of interest Attendance File as credible and correct. Suffice to mention, the numbers for all Disney parks aside from the ones in Tokyo must be proper at the cash. (Tokyo’s numbers also are correct, albeit for a special reason why: OLC stories them immediately in public filings.)
However, the TEA attendance document does include asterisks. Not like Tokyo Disney Hotel, Common Orlando and Walt Disney Global don’t free up attendance statistics as a part of their profits or annual reporting. There’s a complete ‘technique’ phase beginning on web page 78 of the document, which states:
“Our researchers derive the figures used to create the TEA World Revel in Index thru various assets, together with statistics furnished immediately by way of the operators, ancient numbers, monetary stories, native tourism organizations, nationwide and world appeal associations, cell location analytics {and professional} estimates the place important.”
The document is going on to give an explanation for why maximum theme park operators voluntarily supply statistics to TEA, and addresses skepticism about inflating or in a different way manipulating statistics. There has lengthy been fan cynicism about each Common Orlando and Walt Disney Global doing exactly this over time.
On the other hand, we doubt that’s going down right here for a lot of causes (additionally defined on pages 78-79). The document issues out that misreporting or over-reporting creates issues for the operators in each the lengthy and brief time period. “Within the close to time period, if attendance is up however revenues or profitability don’t seem to be, it raises questions. In the long term, ultimately, they’ll hit some degree the place the numbers are too a long way off to be credible.” TEA makes the case within the price of correct statistics for the well being of the business, and we imagine this to be a persuasive and compelling one.
That is totally correct. Any person who listens to Disney profits calls is aware of that the important thing metric with which the corporate is outright obsessed is consistent with capita or guesting spending. That issues a lot more to Wall Side road than attendance, therefore Disney’s previous notorious observation about an “unfavourable attendance combine.” You already know what decreases consistent with capita spending? Mendacity about upper attendance!
The income is what it’s. So if Walt Disney Global had been to say upper attendance than the parks are in fact seeing, it will lower consistent with caps. Which means that, if the rest, Disney and Common are in fact incentivized to underreport–now not overreport–attendance. Disney’s dream situation is attaining record-setting income with a couple of thousand visitors consistent with day and everybody making it rain on VIP Excursions and Lightning Lane Premier Cross.
It’s the fan standpoint this is fixated on crowd ranges and attendance. The ones numbers subject to the firms for the sake of the long-term well being of the companies, visitor pride, and different metrics. However they’ve different metrics that subject extra, and their focal point on the ones provides credibility to this document, versus calling it into query.
For that and quite a few different causes, we imagine that numbers for each Walt Disney Global and Common Orlando are correct. They had been proper two years in the past when the consequences had been higher for Common, and proper the remaining two years when extra favorable for Disney. They’ll be correct once more subsequent 12 months when Common Orlando displays total beneficial properties due to Epic Universe. If you happen to best imagine the consequences after they let you know what you need to listen to, that claims extra about you than the document.
With that preface out of the best way, right here’s a take a look at the Most sensible 25 Theme Parks International:
Right here’s the TEA research of the knowledge:
The worldwide points of interest panorama noticed a go back to strong enlargement in 2024, as commute and tourism patterns leveled out to more or less pre-pandemic numbers. The blended attendance of the highest 25 theme parks globally grew 2.4% in 2024 to just about 246 million. Basically, the main parks within the mature markets of the U.S., Japan, and western Europe noticed flat to modest adjustments in attendance, whilst the main across the world branded parks in China noticed notable persisted enlargement and registered checklist years.
The arena’s best water parks jointly noticed lower than 1% building up in attendance, even though particular person effects various extensively by way of area, in large part impacted by way of native marketplace stipulations reminiscent of climate and tourism.
At the museum entrance, China persisted its fast upward push as a dominant pressure at the international charts. 14 of the highest 20 museums are actually situated in China. China’s nationwide prioritization of and funding in cultural establishments like museums, blended with cheap admissions and big inhabitants facilities has helped gasoline this main shift available in the market.
For reference, right here’s a glance again a minimum of 12 months’s TEA stats:
Turning to research, we need to get started by way of directing your consideration to the declines for Disneyland Paris and the Walt Disney Studios Park. Right here’s the TEA research:
Disneyland Park in France once more led the Eu scores, even though each Disneyland Park and second-gate Walt Disney Studios Park noticed a 1.8% decline in attendance. The parks had been impacted by way of the Paris 2024 Summer season Olympics, which raised lodge charges and shifted customer consideration all the way through the height summer season months.
This fits statements from Disney’s profits calls, which attributed the decline to the Olympics. There have been additionally numerous media stories of a identical dynamic right through Paris, because the Olympics sucked up the entire oxygen within the town.
We’d additionally be aware that the Disneyland Paris thirtieth Anniversary party resulted in September 2023, so a tricky comparability to that most probably contributed to the decline (albeit best rather, since that tournament began in Spring 2022). Then there’s additionally the truth that the second one gate has been a development zone for some time now. We’d be expecting 2025-2026 attendance to extend at each.
On the other hand, the explanation we’re drawing consideration to it’s because we’ve heard from numerous Disney fanatics questioning what Disneyland goes to complete “in time for” the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics. The present assumption is that Disney will need up to conceivable to open by way of then, capitalizing on that spice up in trade.
This may counsel the other is right–and that the Olympics are a drag on tourism versus a driving force of it. And if truth be told, that is kind of the consensus view. What we’ve noticed with Paris and different host towns/international locations is that the Olympics act as advertising and marketing for long run visits, a catalyst for a tourism increase within the years that apply–now not all the way through the occasions.
Accordingly, the easier query is what Disneyland can have completed in 2029-2030, when the loose exposure from the Olympics begins paying dividends for California. (It’s essential argue that the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics will likely be other as a result of Disneyland is an American establishment this is extra carefully related to the U.S. than Disneyland Paris–the cultural chernobyl–is with France. And thus, Disneyland will likely be a better precedence for extra world vacationers coming to California. However I nonetheless don’t assume Disney goes to fast-track the rest for the LA Olympics.)
Frankly, I’m now not totally positive I accept as true with TEA’s research that separates mature markets in Asia from China and asserts that the previous is flat whilst the latter is rising.
On the contrary, it will be my rivalry that regional share adjustments are in large part pushed by way of the surroundings in the previous couple of years. The most important jumps in year-over-year figures as soon as once more got here out of parks in Asia, which had essentially the most restrictive running environments previous to 2023.
The place the respective parks had been within the cycle of pent-up call for issues so much–had been they nonetheless driving the wave, or had it receded? From the whole thing I’ve noticed–and this extends to commute & tourism traits extra extensively–Japan and China are each nonetheless driving that wave, particularly in terms of world visitation (an ever-increasing slice of the pie).
Japan has been smashing thru annual inbound traveler numbers. Right here’s a headline from simply remaining week: Japan tops 31 mil. guests in Jan.-Sept., surpasses 30 mil. at checklist tempo. I’ve misplaced depend of what number of stories alongside those strains I’ve noticed. There are newly headlines like this each and every unmarried month, because of Japan proceeding to damage its per 30 days data…all of which have been simply set remaining 12 months.
There’s just one outlier there, and it’s Common Studios Japan, the #3 theme park on the planet. Don’t get me flawed, I like USJ, however that park must now not be the #3 most-attended park on the planet in keeping with capability. The most likely causes it didn’t building up year-over-year was once as it was once already bursting on the seams, made a robust comeback post-COVID due to Annual Cross gross sales (which nonetheless don’t seem to be to be had at TDR), and Tremendous Nintendo Global is now a couple of years outdated (and Mine-Cart Insanity didn’t debut till past due remaining 12 months).
The truth that USJ has held secure in instances quite very similar to Common Studios Hollywood is a small miracle. I’d guess on enlargement once more in 2025 with Donkey Kong Nation now being open for a complete 12 months.
The turn facet of that is that the remainder of the sector’s theme parks are most commonly underperforming is as a result of they reopened and recovered previous, and are actually seeing their waves of revenge commute receding.
That creates unfavourable comparisons, which has made overperformance within the remaining couple of years tough, even with Walt Disney Global and different operators pulling quite a lot of “levers” to trap visitors to go back. However, projects like higher discounting, go back of Annual Passes, particular occasions, and the hole of recent points of interest are all examples of the way one of the crucial parks have controlled to eek out beneficial properties.
To that time, let’s slim the ones numbers to North The usa, right here’s the Most sensible 20:
Magic Kingdom remained best canine of theme parks—now not simply #1 at Walt Disney Global, however in all of the global.
On the other hand, it’s nonetheless down as in comparison to 2019, when the park reached a staggering 20.96 million visitors. That continues to be the top water mark for attendance, and it most probably gained’t be reached once more till Vehicles land opens in 2029.
On the different finish of the spectrum, Animal Kingdom continues to underperform because the #4 park at Walt Disney Global with 8.8 million visitors. That’s down significantly from the 13.9 million visitors it hit in 2019. It nonetheless astounds us that Disney waited goodbye to extend post-Pandora, and that the one factor introduced to this point is Tropical Americas. That’ll give DAK a spice up, however it’s no Pandora. I’d be expecting even worse effects for Animal Kingdom in 2025-2026, however on the other hand, I anticipated the ones to be obtrusive within the 2024 attendance figures.
EPCOT is as soon as once more within the #2 spot of Walt Disney Global parks, having handed Disney’s Hollywood Studios in 2023 when it had a large 19.8% attendance building up to be the number one rising home Disney park. This is as soon as once more the case for 2024, albeit with only one.3% enlargement.
Each and every different home Disney park noticed beneficial properties of lower than 1%. This comports with what Disney CEO Bob Iger and CFO Hugh Johnston have mentioned on a couple of profits calls during the last year-plus, when they’ve time and again instructed that attendance has been most commonly flat. Enlargement of 0.3 to one.3% enlargement just about epitomizes “most commonly flat.”
Total, the home Disney parks maintained their market-leading place regardless of larger festival, with U.S. theme parks contributing 76.5 million in general attendance in 2024, a nil.6% building up over 2023. At the monetary facet, the expansion driving force got here from a 5% building up in per-capita price ticket income. Thank you, Lightning Lane Premier Cross!
As famous above, attendance is down just about around the board as in comparison to the 2019 document. EPCOT and Disney’s Hollywood Studios are the 2 parks that come the nearest, however it does now not appear to be both will surpass the ones top water marks anytime quickly.
That’s particularly most likely with none main additions till 2028 for Disney’s Hollywood Studios and ??? for EPCOT. In truth, even though, perhaps EPCOT can break out with the singles and doubles manner. Take a look at Monitor 3.0 has exceeded my expectancies when it comes to recognition, and it’s conceivable that Soarin’ Throughout The usa and the improvements coming to Frozen Ever After and Remy’s Ratatouille Journey may just be offering identical boosts in 2026. Then, who is aware of, perhaps reimaginings of Spaceship Earth and/or Adventure Into Creativeness in 2027-2028?!?! (Dare to dream.)
Walt Disney Global appears to be ok with now not hitting the 2019 top water mark for attendance. A minimum of, for essentially the most section. As we famous above, consistent with visitor spending is the corporate’s key metric and so they’ve completed enviable effects there. However they’ve additionally introduced extra reductions during the last 18 months. A few of the ones, like Loose Eating, in fact do building up consistent with visitor spending. Others, just like the price ticket offers, don’t.
Our place for some time has been that Disney Doesn’t Need Decrease Crowds. The name of the put up must give away our conclusion, however there’s truly extra nuance to it than that.
In truth, the corporate desires to have its cake and devour it too: the intersection of upper visitor spending and upper attendance. That means that if consistent with visitor spending stats may well be maximized concurrently Magic Kingdom breaking the 20 million barrier, Disney would completely take each. That isn’t moderately conceivable, so they target to string the needle and steadiness the ones needs.
Disney additionally must deal with a definite degree of visitor pride. If what I’ve heard is correct, that took a reasonably noticeable hit on one of the crucial heaviest attendance days in 2019 (and now not simply all the way through top weeks), which is one explanation why Walt Disney Global has eased again at the attendance accelerator and is now searching to extend park capability–particularly in Magic Kingdom. However that’s every other subject for every other day.
Then there’s Common Orlando, which had every other tough 12 months in 2024. This was once completely anticipated within the lead-up to Epic Universe.
However, Common’s North American parks all misplaced attendance with Common Studios Florida losing greater than 2.5%, Islands of Journey down 5.5%, and Common Studios Hollywood declining just about 10%. The remaining of those has noticed a steep decline because it lapped Tremendous Nintendo Global, which is the main cause of that decline. That, and not anything new in 2024. (The Rapid & Livid: Hollywood Go with the flow curler coaster debuts in early 2026, in order that’ll most likely be the following 12 months for enlargement at USH.)
At the monetary facet, Common theme parks skilled an approximate 4% decline in income from 2023. This lower was once essentially as a consequence of decrease park attendance and the antagonistic affect of foreign exchange fluctuations.
The decline for Common Orlando in 2024 comes after an excellent larger lower in 2023. That 12 months, Islands of Journey was once down 9.3% to ten million visitors whilst Common Studios Florida additionally fell 9.3% to 9.75 million visitors.
The most productive rationalization for 2 consecutive years of deep drops at Common Orlando is, moderately merely, that it soar again larger and bolder than Walt Disney Global in 2021-2022. With quicker beneficial properties then, it’s now not an enormous marvel that there’s been a pullback and steeper drop since. And remaining 12 months (however now not 2023), it’s additionally truthful to characteristic some of the lower to fanatics suspending visits till Epic Universe opened.
For its section, Comcast attributed their (documented) slowdown on pent-up call for for different commute choices together with cruises and world tourism, the power of the buck, and normalization post-pent-up call for. Common executives additionally conceded their decrease attendance to a lull in new appeal choices: “We haven’t introduced a significant new appeal in Orlando since VelociCoaster in 2021, in anticipation of Epic Universe,” defined Jason Armstrong, Comcast’s CFO all the way through one profits name.
That is exactly why Common has been speaking about competitive growth plans in any respect 3 of its Orlando theme parks. We already know that Rip Experience Rockit is being changed, and Common has wasted no time getting began on demolition of that. There are rumors that Springfield is subsequent at the reducing block, to get replaced by way of a Pokémon-themed house (even supposing I’m skeptical). There’s most probably extra to come back at Common Studios Florida in 2026.
Extra seems poised to occur at Islands of Journey, as neatly. Final month, Common Orlando filed development allows to demolish a 5-acre portion of the Misplaced Continent island in that park, confirming that the realm is slated for alternative as rumors swirl about Zelda, Depraved, and different long run possibilities for that land.
Common wishes to transport instant on those growth plans–and it sounds as if there are. Nonetheless, it’s not going there’s the rest main debuting at Common Orlando in 2026. Their enlargement technique will likely be larger capability at Epic Universe fueling total attendance beneficial properties.
For no matter it’s price, we predicted that Common Orlando can be down once more in 2024. That was once in keeping with a mixture of profits calls, wait occasions knowledge, and previous precedent. We additionally instructed that Comcast is most probably completely advantageous with this, because it creates a juicy comparability that’ll be simple to blow out of the water as soon as Epic Universe opens.
It’ll be attention-grabbing to peer how attendance fares at Common Studios Florida and Islands of Journey as soon as Epic Universe opens. Traditionally, new gates have come on the brief time period expense of present ones–however Common has used a daring technique that in large part bundled Epic Universe get admission to into multi-day applications that “pressure” visitors to discuss with the legacy parks.
In truth, I don’t know what to anticipate with Common Orlando attendance in 2025. Around the board, general visits will clearly be up. That’s what occurs when going from 2 parks to three parks. They didn’t drop $7 billion for stagnation’s sake. The actual query, even though, is simply how top Epic Universe attendance will likely be and whether or not it’ll come on the expense of the legacy gates, or if that daring technique paid off and avoided cannibalization.
With out query, Epic Universe would be the lowest-attended Common or Disney theme park in 2025. That’ll be true just by distinctive feature of it now not running a complete 12 months. It’ll be very tough for it to exceed the 5.7 million visitors it’d want to surpass the Walt Disney Studios Park.
In truth, I’d be very shocked if Epic Universe eclipses 5 million visitors in 2025. A extra real looking quantity is most probably round 4.5 million visitors, which might come lovely as regards to monitoring with leaked price ticket gross sales knowledge earlier than that was once bring to a halt (whilst additionally assuming enlargement for October thru December). That’s a powerful inaugural 12 months quantity. Anything else underneath 4 million can be a sadness.
I don’t have any daring predictions for Islands of Journey or Common Studios Florida. Comcast hasn’t mentioned a lot about the ones parks of their profits calls. The bundled price ticket technique has maintained a flooring beneath them. There nonetheless aren’t APs for Epic Universe, which assists in keeping locals visiting the legacy gates. However alternatively, there was once completely not anything new. I’d guess on very modest decreases–more or less 1% to three% for each parks.
The more serious numbers for Islands of Journey and Common Studios Florida will most probably are available in 2026 due to ticketing regulations being comfy for Epic Universe. Subsequent 12 months is when cannibalization will likely be felt in complete pressure, particularly if there’s not anything new to trap visitors to discuss with USF and IoA.
In brief, good fortune for theme parks is lovely easy: in the event you construct it, they are going to come.
Time and time once more, the TEA numbers have borne this out. Animal Kingdom noticed a identical explosion post-Pandora, whilst Famous person Wars: Galaxy’s Edge and Toy Tale Land had been large for Disney’s Hollywood Studios. Final 12 months’s numbers for EPCOT inform a identical tale, with the park in any case benefitting from Cosmic Rewind and the additions that got here earlier than it. In the meantime, Magic Kingdom noticed a modest spice up from TRON Lightcycle Run.
Similarly as vital, the TEA document displays the reverse: when parks pass too lengthy between opening new points of interest, their attendance suffers. If you need one “narrative” to remove from those attendance statistics, that are meant to be it! For something, it’s true. For every other, it’s the narrative that advantages us all and places us all at the similar “facet” fairly than the never-ending Common vs. Disney discourse that makes us all sound like bizarre cultists.
Most significantly, it’s the standpoint that encourages theme parks to speculate extra money into growth and opening new points of interest. We’re now seeing this play out in each California and Central Florida as Common and Disney make investments billions upon billions of bucks to draw new guests. Without reference to which facet “wins” or “loses” within the brief time period, each win in the long term. Most significantly, fanatics all win!
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Your Ideas
What do you recall to mind the TEA World Points of interest Attendance File? Ideas at the effects for Common Orlando or Walt Disney Global? Any colour remark of your personal so as to add? Do you settle or disagree with our tests and forward-looking predictions? Any questions we will permit you to resolution? Listening to your comments—even while you disagree with us—is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please percentage your ideas underneath within the feedback!
