Walt Disney International simply wrapped up the week that we forecast would have the best possible crowd ranges in Iciness 2026 because of two vacations coinciding, which doesn’t all the time occur. Right here’s how our prediction carried out, how prime wait instances if truth be told have been, plus what to anticipate going ahead. Spoiler alert: it was once unhealthy. Worse than all different weeks of the ultimate 52, minus one.
In the event you’re new to wintry weather crowds, the unhealthy information is they’re unhealthy. Or a minimum of, worse than they was. There’s this “sticky” belief of wintry weather being the low season, which is most definitely in equivalent portions because of old-fashioned Walt Disney International lovers remembering the nice ole days, and informal vacationers to Florida intuitively considering the Sunshine State and its seashores might be much less busy when temperatures are within the 40s to 60s. (The in a single day low was once simply 36℉.)
That belief could be correct about Florida as a complete, however no longer Walt Disney International. That is exactly what precipitated us to jot down Iciness (Nonetheless) Is No longer Off-Season at Walt Disney International. That was once not anything new; it’s a development we first noticed long ago in 2017. It’s simplest been exacerbated post-COVID, as extra other folks are living in Central Florida, paintings remotely, or another way trip all over the primary few months of the yr.
This dynamic is already enjoying out once more over the primary two months of 2026, with even the weeks out of doors of the “worst” one being various levels of busy.
Talking of the ones ‘various levels,’ we predicted that ‘worst week’ of wintry weather at Walt Disney International can be roughly February 13-22, 2026. That is hardly ever information–that window is all the time unhealthy.
The explanations for this have been documented in our record of the 10 Highest & Worst Weeks to Seek advice from Walt Disney International in 2026 & 2027. Many college districts be offering a protracted weekend or complete week off, for what’s extensively referred to as Mid-Iciness Wreck (or “Ski Week”), anchored to Presidents’ Day. A number of main districts within the Northeast and Midwest additionally be offering this complete week off. A number of others have a protracted weekend damage only for the Presidents’ Day vacation.
That occurs once a year, however the distinctive wrinkle this yr, was once Mardi Gras on February 17, 2026.
That doesn’t occur once a year; on the contrary, it ultimate happened in 2023 and led to a significant spike in crowds. Many main college districts in Louisiana have the week round Mardi Gras off, as do a handful of different college districts in coastal counties in Mississippi and Alabama.
The key is that that is nearly all the time the worst week within the two months previous to spring damage season beginning, and it’s steadily busier than the early spring breaks in March when Central Florida college districts are on recess. Even if it’s no longer generally worse than Easter, we prior to now wrote that there’s an out of doors likelihood of that during 2026 because of the one-two punch of Presidents’ Day and Mardi Gras.
Closing yr, we predicted that the worst week of wintry weather can be February 14-23, 2025. In reviewing the wait instances information, the worst dates have been if truth be told February 14-22, 2025. That extend averaged 8/10 crowd ranges and 41 minute wait instances. (February twenty third, which was once in our predicted vary, ended up at 34 mins and 5/10 crowds.)
In contrast, February thirteenth was once a 2/10 crowd stage with 29 minute averages and February twenty fourth was once a 1/10 crowd stage with 25 minute averages. Dates ahead of and after the ones ‘worst week’ dates have been equivalent.
Again in 2024, heavy crowds began on February 15 and endured till February 26. Height crowd ranges have been February 16-17 and February 19-21, all of which had 9/10 or 10/10 crowd ranges. For the ones retaining rating at house, our predictions carried out in a similar way in 2024, simply as they did in 2023.
With that background set, right here’s a have a look at 2026 wait time stats, courtesy of thrill-data.com:
As you’ll see from the above day by day information, the ultimate week-plus noticed a pointy spike in crowds at Walt Disney International.
The worst dates inside of that window have been February 13-21, 2026. The height inside of that was once February fifteenth, even if February 14-17 noticed day by day 9/10 crowd ranges.
It’s no longer unexpected that Sunday, February twenty second noticed a drop-off and ended up being simplest 4/10 crowds. That is one thing we persistently see on the tail finish of height weeks as vacationers head house. The rage has change into more and more true on Saturdays, too. We however err at the facet of warning and proceed together with the ones relatively much less busy weekends in maximum of our worst weeks, with a number of exceptions (post-Thanksgiving being the most important).
This stretch was once busier than ultimate yr, however no longer as unhealthy as 2023 or 2024. That’s the overall development, regardless that, and no longer actually an apples to apples comparability because the transfer from Genie+ to Lightning Lane Multi-Go in addition to the DAS crackdown have dramatically decreased standby line waits (to a some distance better level than Disney has reported attendance adjustments).
To that time, it’s value reiterating that the above crowd ranges are as measured by way of wait instances information. There is not any nice technique to measure attendance, and to the level we get information for that, it’s annual.
In our intensive revel in, ‘seems like’ crowds or congestion are all the time worse all over wintry weather than spring thru early fall. You’ll be able to lovely safely be expecting disproportionate ‘seems like’ crowds from November thru February; there are a number of causes for this, however climate is the cleanest clarification.
The explanation congestion isn’t as unhealthy in months which are warmer is as a result of other folks prioritize air-conditioning, in order that they transfer extra temporarily from line to line. Crowds also are worse within the (fewer) middle of the night hours, particularly Prolonged Night time Hours as a disproportionate choice of visitors search out the ones as a reprieve from the elements.
All over months when the elements is nicer, the other is correct. You’ll see extra visitors wandering round, taking part in the ambience of the parks. Those months additionally draw out extra locals, who’re (statistically) much less prone to race from experience to experience, exacerbating wait instances. There are different contributing elements, however the giant distinction boils right down to climate.
Zoom out and have a look at weekly wait time information, and we see one thing relatively unexpected: ultimate week wasn’t simply the worst week of wintry weather, it was once tied for the second-worst week of the ultimate yr!
The one week that was once busier was once the week of New 12 months’s Eve, which was once considerably worse. Closing week was once tied with Easter, beating ultimate Christmas and Central Florida’s Spring Wreck. It was once worse than Fall Wreck, Thanksgiving, and each and every unmarried week of summer time.
That’s lovely noteworthy for a vacation that isn’t even at the radar of a large number of vacationers. We name a large number of consideration to Presidents’ Day, like Veterans Day, since the “sudden” crowds all the time catch other folks by way of wonder–and we inevitably pay attention about it from readers, regardless of our many warnings.
We predicted that ultimate week would indisputably be one of the vital most sensible 10 worst weeks, and may well be one of the vital most sensible 5 worst weeks, so this isn’t out of line with expectancies. Then again, I wouldn’t have put it at #2.
My expectation is that it’ll nonetheless fall to #3 or #4 after we’re taking a look on the entirety of 2026 versus the (rolling) ultimate 12 months. At minimal, Easter will have to be worse this yr by way of distinctive feature of going on previous. I’m additionally skeptical that Christmas 2026 might be as sluggish (moderately talking) as ultimate yr. However Thanksgiving has been trending downward for some time, and it wouldn’t be unexpected if the primary two weeks of Spring Wreck are slower.
Regardless, this will have to underscore simply how unhealthy ultimate week was once (and once more, with worse ‘seems like’ crowds than window all over a hotter time of yr) and why you will have to keep away from those dates in 2027 or 2028. The excellent news is that the collision of Presidents’ Day and Mardi Gras doesn’t repeat itself till 2032. Simply in time for colossal crowds to descend upon Villains Land!
Additionally attention-grabbing is that, as of at the moment, February 2026 is the busiest month of the ultimate 12. That’s in all probability the larger tale right here, as we knew the week of Mid-Iciness Wreck can be unhealthy.
Then again, we didn’t be expecting the 2 weeks ahead of it to be as busy as they have been; as a substitute of a weeklong reprieve from the crowds as is generally the case, there have been just a few 2-3 day stretches of two/10 to 4/10 crowd ranges.
At the same time as wintry weather has gotten worse, it’s nonetheless been the case that there have been wallet of low to average crowds within the combine. With each and every yr, those appear to shrink and change into much less predictable. They’re nonetheless amongst our favourite weeks to talk over with due to climate and the EPCOT Pageant of the Arts, however it’s getting harder to suggest those 5/10 to 7/10 dates–with even worse ‘seems like’ crowds from an goal standpoint. Past greater trip flexibility and the next Central Florida inhabitants, different drivers of those added crowds are early life carrying occasions, conventions, and South American excursion teams.
In the end, all of that is is why Mid-Iciness Wreck ranks #4 on our record of the Least-Unhealthy Weeks to Seek advice from Walt Disney International for Households on Faculty Schedules. As we are actually not up to a yr clear of our personal trip being constrained by way of college schedules, I’m changing into more and more cognizant of the sensible realities of once we’ll have the ability to take journeys.
If we had just one Walt Disney International holiday consistent with yr and may make a selection it in a vacuum, we wouldn’t select Mid-Iciness Wreck. (That’s why it ranks #4!) However there also are 6 weeks which are worse than that, and that’s with out each and every unmarried week of summer time integrated at the record. Then again, we additionally couldn’t make a selection it in a vacuum–and a few our most sensible alternatives coincide with circle of relatives vacations, so the ones are most definitely out. Unexpectedly, Mid-Iciness Wreck, even with its 7/10 to 9/10 crowds, turns into much more horny.
To each and every their very own, however I’d fortuitously take upper ‘seems like’ crowds/congestion over upper ‘seems like’ temperatures. That’s exactly why extra weeks from November thru March make our record of the most efficient time to talk over with. In our view, manner an excessive amount of emphasis is put on wait instances, as though they’re the end-all, be-all of Walt Disney International shuttle timing. No less than for us, they aren’t the highest 2 or 3 concerns. You’ll be able to beat prime crowds; you can not get away oppressive warmth and humidity.
In the event you’re searching for the most efficient of each worlds, the excellent news is that there will have to be a reprieve from the crowds for the following couple of weeks. The parks received’t be the rest as regards to ghost cities (see the entire above observation about wintry weather, as a complete, being busier than it was), however those subsequent two weeks received’t be as unhealthy as ultimate week and even the median week of wintry weather.
So far, this week has observed 4/10 to six/10 crowd ranges at Walt Disney International. It was one in every of our most sensible weeks of the yr, however that modified throughout the ultimate couple of years as crowds began to creep up. With Mardi Gras shifting ahead, that opens up the primary week of March, which we most often like extra.
Once more, it received’t be lifeless, and there are nonetheless main pitfalls to keep away from with the beginning the 2026 EPCOT Flower & Lawn Pageant, along side ESPN Large International of Sports activities occasions, however it will have to be imaginable to hit 3/10 to 4/10 days by way of opting for the most efficient days of the week to talk over with each and every park.
Thus far, Mardi Gras coinciding with Presidents’ Day has one evident upside, which is that it’s no longer going on a special week. Through consolidating crowds which are generally unfold out, the dates that apply in overdue February and early March 2026 will have to be higher than ultimate yr.
That received’t ultimate too lengthy, as Central Florida’s Spring Wreck is correct across the nook subsequent month, however it’s if truth be told a equivalent tale with Spring Wreck. Easter shifting ahead by way of 15 days in 2026 method shoulder season will have to arrive quicker!
Climate, alternatively, is slightly trickier. Central Florida has had more than one unseasonably chilly stretches this yr, to the purpose that it could be off-putting to vacationers who booked journeys to the so-called Sunshine State. At the plus facet, this will have to cut back the numbers of locals visiting by way of a non-negligible quantity, yielding an goal development in crowd ranges.
From a subject matter standpoint, maximum vacationers will most definitely favor delicate climate. However as anyone who has intensive revel in with triple-digit warmth in Central Florida all over summer time and fall, I can fortuitously take “excessive” chilly (by way of Florida’s requirements) to excessive warmth. Identical to beating crowds vs. beating warmth, you’ll all the time triumph over chilly climate by way of including layers…there are simplest such a lot of you’ll take away ahead of you’re escorted out of the park.
Making plans a Walt Disney International shuttle? Find out about lodges on our Walt Disney International Accommodations Opinions web page. For the place to consume, learn our Walt Disney International Eating place Opinions. To economize on tickets or decide which sort to shop for, learn our Pointers for Saving Cash on Walt Disney International Tickets put up. Our What to Pack for Disney Journeys put up takes a singular have a look at artful pieces to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney International Trip Guides will lend a hand. For complete recommendation, the most efficient position to begin is our Walt Disney International Commute Making plans Information for the whole lot you wish to have to understand!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Did you talk over with Walt Disney International all over this worst week of wintry weather in 2026? What did you call to mind the crowds? Have you ever performed Mid-Iciness Wreck (or no matter you need to name it) previously? In the event you’ve visited prior to now when Presidents’ Day and Mardi Gras coincided, did you realize colossal crowds? Do you compromise or disagree with our predictions? Any questions we will be able to will let you solution? Listening to your comments–even whilst you disagree with us–is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please percentage your ideas beneath within the feedback!
